Introduction
Chapter 1. Cash flows in the production, economic and financial activities of the enterprise
1 The economic essence of the cash flows of the enterprise
2 Cash flow and characteristics of its types
3 Cash flow information system
Chapter 2. Methods for analyzing the cash flows of an enterprise
1 Methods of cash flow analysis that do not use discounting
2 Methods for estimating cash flows over time
3 Methods for estimating cash flows in an inflationary environment
Chapter 3
1 Optimization of enterprise cash flows
2 Development of a plan for the receipt and expenditure of funds
Conclusion
Bibliography
cash flow enterprise inflation
Introduction
The presence of money at the enterprise determines the possibility of its survival and the direction of further development.
The efficiency of optimizing the cash flows of an enterprise serving its economic activities depends, first of all, on the information base for decision-making - high-quality analytical work. In turn, the practice of financial management has accumulated extensive experience in optimizing cash settlements, increasing profitability, financial stability and market activity of an enterprise, reducing the risks of liquidity loss and bankruptcy. In this regard, the topic of the course work related to the analysis and management of the enterprise's cash flows is of particular relevance.
The research topic is widely covered in the works of domestic and foreign economists. Many authors pay attention to the analysis and financial management of enterprise cash flows. From Russian economists - these are Zholonsky E., Ivakina I., Kostyrenko R.O., Kononenko O., Makhanko O., from foreign authors - these are Bakanov M.I., Blank A., Bocharov V.V., Kreinina M. ., Kononenko O., Leontiev V.E., Radkovskaya N.P. Savitskaya G., Savchuk V.P. Utkin E., Shapkin A.S., Shapkin V.A., Sheremet A.D., and many others.
This paper discusses the concept of cash flows from the point of view of their management in the enterprise.
Cash flow management at an enterprise is currently a hot topic, since its financial stability, solvency, ability to function smoothly and develop in accordance with market requirements depend on the formation of cash flow, all these factors, in turn, affect the state of society and the economy as a whole.
One of the main problems of the Russian economy at present is the shortage of funds at enterprises for their current and investment activities. However, upon closer examination of this problem, it turns out that one of the reasons for this deficit is, as a rule, the low efficiency of attracting and using financial resources, the limited nature of the financial instruments, technologies, and mechanisms used in this case.
The main purpose of this work is to study the essence of cash flow management in an enterprise, to determine the main methods of planning and operating cash.
Based on this, the following tasks were set in the work:
analyze existing points of view on the theoretical aspects of cash flow and clarify the definition of the concept of "cash flows" of the enterprise;
classify and define them in terms of their relevance to management;
identify the main tools for managing and analyzing cash flows;
determine the main directions of cash flow management.
The object of study in this paper is the cash flows of the enterprise.
The subject of study is the analysis and evaluation of the regulation of the cash flow process.
Chapter 1. Cash flows in the production, economic and financial activities of the enterprise
1 The economic essence of the cash flows of the enterprise
The implementation of almost all types of financial transactions generates a certain cash flow in the form of their receipt or expenditure. This movement of funds of a functioning enterprise over time is a continuous process and is defined by the concept of "cash flow". At the present stage, more and more attention is being paid to enterprise cash flow management, and some progress has already been made on this path.
The further development of systems and mechanisms for managing the cash flows of an enterprise urgently requires deepening theoretical studies of this category, which is most important for financial management, and, first of all, a comprehensive consideration of its essential characteristics that determine it. Anticipating this consideration, we note that this study is aimed at the subsequent practical use of certain theoretical provisions in the cash flow management system of specific business entities. Such a restriction deliberately excludes from the field of study of the theory of cash flows all abstract definitions of this category, characterizing it as a form of socio-economic relations, as well as the features of their formation and flow that go beyond the enterprise.
Taking into account the stated purpose of the study, we will formulate the main characteristics of the cash flows of an enterprise as an object of financial management, which, in our opinion, comprehensively reflect the essential aspects of this category.
Cash flow as an object of financial management of the economic activity of the enterprise. The process of movement of money reflects the monetary relations of the enterprise, which are included in the scope of its financial activities. This connection between the cash flows of an enterprise and the scope of its financial activities is emphasized by many economists - according to the most widely used definition, enterprise finances are a system of economic relations associated with the formation, distribution and use of funds in the process of their implementation. economic activity.
The cash flow of an enterprise reflects its monetary relations, both external and internal.
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process directly related to the functioning of money and monetary system countries. The content of the cash flow of an enterprise is the movement of a special type of its assets - money and their substitutes. Money is one of the most important elements of any economic system and largely reflects the national characteristics of the development of the economy of individual countries. These features are manifested in the specific form of the chosen national currency, the types of foreign currency allowed for circulation in a given country, the issue (or monetary) policy of a given state, the ratio of cash and non-cash money circulation in the country, the breadth and features of the use of individual financial instruments that mediate monetary relations. enterprises, as well as other parameters that determine the nature of the country's monetary system.
In other words, if the flow of tangible and intangible assets of an enterprise characterizes the movement of their individualized varieties, the breadth and functional features of which are determined by the specifics of its operating activities, then the cash flow is associated with the movement of money and monetary substitutes, which are universal for all enterprises.
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process associated with the formation, distribution and use of its capital. The basis of the company's cash flow is the movement of cash assets owned by it by ownership, i.e. equity in cash. In this capacity, equity in the most generalized form is characterized as a previously accumulated stock of money and their substitutes at a certain point in time. In other words, the cash flow on a specific date can be considered as a discrete value of the enterprise's capital in monetary form, characterized by the size of the stock of its monetary assets (accordingly, any change in this discrete value in dynamics reflects the nature of the enterprise's cash flow in the considered period of time).
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process that reflects the use of an enterprise various forms loan. The movement of funds of the enterprise is inextricably linked with the movement of the loan capital used by it, attracted to carry out economic activities in the form of a loan. This relationship is due to the fact that in modern conditions, credit is the most important source of meeting the demand of enterprises for financial resources. No matter how high the level of self-financing of the operating and investment activities of the enterprise, business entities to ensure accelerated growth and increase the return on equity, it is necessary to attract credit funds. The credit is necessary for the enterprise to maintain the continuity of the circulation of its funds, maintenance of the production process and the process of selling manufactured goods, acquiring various capital goods in the course of investment activities.
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process that characterizes the turnover and transformation of certain types of its assets. The monetary assets used by the enterprise are in constant motion, which is accompanied by a constant change in their types and forms. The process of such constant movement and transformation, characterized in economic theory by the term "asset turnover", is carried out in the form of certain recurring cycles. The asset turnover cycle is understood as the period of complete completion of the circulation of their individual functional groups and types, as a result of which they return to their original form - monetary assets. As can be seen from the figure, the nature of the circulation of enterprise cash advanced into current and non-current assets is characterized by a certain specificity, which is reflected in the formation of the total cash flow.
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process that generates an economic effect. The ability to generate an economic effect is one of the most important characteristics of an enterprise's cash flow. Wherever the funds of an enterprise (its capital in cash) are used - in its operating or investment activities, they are always potentially capable of generating a positive economic effect, provided they are used rationally.
The main form of the economic effect generated by the company's cash flows is the "net cash flow" (the difference between the total volume of positive and negative cash flow). The level of net cash flow characterizes the ability of capital in cash to provide a different degree of self-increase in its value.
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process that reflects the forms and volumes of the enterprise's functioning in the commodity and financial markets. Formation of cash flows various kinds is inextricably linked with the functioning of the enterprise in specific markets. So, the main volume of cash receipts in the course of the enterprise's operating activities is associated with the sale of its products on the commodity market. The main volume of spending money on raw materials, materials, semi-finished products, capital goods used in the process of operating and investment activities of the enterprise also occurs in the commodity market. On the financial market(in its various segments) an enterprise raises funds by issuing shares and bonds, in the form of bank and other types of credit, and spends them on servicing and repaying the principal amount of the debt, and acquiring financial investment instruments.
The cash flow of an enterprise as a process carried out taking into account the time factor. The growth rates of the volume of cash flows, as well as their structure by type of activity of the enterprise, are formed under the significant influence of the time factor. The functioning of money capital in time is always the result of an alternative chosen by its owners - to use it for the current consumption of a certain amount of goods or to involve it in a further economic process to obtain these goods in large quantities after a certain period of time.
The economic value of today's and future goods from the standpoint of the owners of money capital is unequal. Economic theory asserts that today's goods are always valued by the individual above the goods of the future. This feature of the economic behavior of individuals in economic theory is reflected in the term "time preference", the essence of which is that, other things being equal, the possibilities of future consumption from an economic point of view are always less valuable in comparison with current consumption. In order to overcome this stereotype of time preference and induce the owner of capital to refuse to use it for the purpose of current consumption, it is necessary to provide for such a refusal a reward that is significant enough for him.
Alternative forms of time preference arise at all stages of the functioning of capital in the form of money. Accordingly, at each of these stages, the owners of capital face the dilemma of choice associated with its use over time.
The quantitative instrument of the efficiency of the use of capital in time is the "norm of time preference". It determines the ratio of estimates by the individual of consumer goods of the future and the current period. The calculation of this indicator is carried out according to the following formula:
, (1.1)
where - the rate of time preference, expressed as a decimal fraction; - the total assessment of future consumer goods purchased per unit of the available amount of money; - the total assessment of current consumer goods purchased per unit of the available amount of money. The optimal use of funds in time is characterized by a certain criterion. This criterion is based on a comparison of the marginal rate of time preference (individualized for a given owner of capital) with the marginal return on capital. From the standpoint of this ratio, the criterion for the optimal use of money capital in each specific time interval is the ratio: , (1.2)
where - marginal income of money capital; PNVP is the marginal rate of time preference. This criterion guarantees the maximization of the welfare of the owners of the enterprise, if the purpose of using funds is to optimize the distribution of consumption over time. The cash flow of an enterprise as a process carried out taking into account the risk factor. The risk is the most important characteristic of all forms of use of funds in the economic activity of the enterprise. The carrier of this factor is money, which is inextricably linked with their characteristics as economic resources that generate income in the process of use. The level of risk of using funds is directly dependent on the level of the expected effect of the cash flow (net cash flow), in particular, on the level of profitability of individual business operations, forming a single scale "profitability - risk" in their implementation. This scale reflects the average market quantitative parameters of the level of risk of using capital in cash in various types of business activities, corresponding to specific parameters of the level of its expected profitability. Forming various types of cash flows associated with the use of capital in cash to generate income in the operating or investment process, an entrepreneur must always consciously take risks, the measure of which he determines on his own. The risk factor is an important objective attribute of the formation of the company's cash flows and must be taken into account in the process of managing them. The cash flow of an enterprise as a process carried out taking into account the liquidity factor. Serving the process of circulation of capital in cash, the cash flow generated by the enterprise must ensure not only the timely receipt and expenditure of funds, but also a certain level of their stock in order to maintain constant solvency. Such a reserve is created at the enterprise both in the form of various types of monetary assets, and in the form of their substitutes (short-term financial investment instruments). Accordingly, the level of cash flow liquidity is the ratio of the average stock of monetary assets and their substitutes to the amount of cash spending in a certain period. Cash flow liquidity management is ensured not only by determining the required amount of funds to maintain the constant solvency of the enterprise, but also by the formation of a rational structure of the entire set of its assets according to this criterion. Different types of assets, depending on the universality of their functional purpose, the speed of turnover in the operating or investment process, the level of development of the relevant types and market segments, and other conditions, have varying degrees of liquidity. Therefore, when forming the structure of an enterprise's assets from the standpoint of ensuring the liquidity of its cash flow, it is necessary to ensure that they contain a sufficient amount of such types of assets that, if necessary, can be quickly converted into cash at their real value. The liquidity of cash flows is an objective factor that determines the formation of its specific forms and types to maintain the required level of cash reserves of the enterprise. The review of the most significant characteristics of the enterprise's cash flow shows how multidimensional this economic category is from theoretical and applied positions. At the same time, all the characteristics considered, reflecting the characteristics of the cash flow of an enterprise in its various aspects, are closely interconnected and require a comprehensive reflection in determining the economic essence of the cash flow. Taking into account the considered main characteristics, the economic essence of the enterprise's cash flows in the most generalized form can be formulated as follows: The cash flow of an enterprise is a set of receipts and payments of funds distributed over separate intervals of the considered period of time, generated by its economic activity, the movement of which is associated with time, risk and liquidity factors. 1.2 Cash flow and characteristics of its types The concept of the cash flow of an enterprise as an independent object of financial management has not yet received sufficient reflection not only in domestic, but also in foreign literature on financial management. Applied aspects of this concept are usually considered only as part of the issues of managing the balances of monetary assets, managing the formation of financial resources and anti-crisis management of an enterprise in case of bankruptcy. Even financial statements characterizing the cash flow of the enterprise in dynamics, relatively recently introduced into the system of international accounting standards (in our country, such reporting is in its infancy). At the same time, the cash flows of an enterprise in all their forms and types, and, accordingly, its total cash flow, are undoubtedly the most important independent object of financial management, requiring deepening theoretical foundations and expansion of practical recommendations. This is determined by the role that cash flow management plays in the development of the enterprise and the formation of the final results of its financial activities. The considered aspects confirm the thesis about the need to allocate the cash flows of the enterprise into an independent object of financial management with the appropriate structural and staffing of this management. .According to the scale of servicing the business process, the following types of cash flows are distinguished: ·
cash flow for the company as a whole. This is the most aggregated type of cash flow, which accumulates all types of cash flows that serve the business process of the enterprise as a whole; ·
cash flow for certain types of business activities of the enterprise. This type of cash flow characterizes the result of differentiation of the total cash flow of the enterprise in the context of certain types of its economic activity; · cash flow for individual structural divisions (responsibility centers) of the enterprise. Such differentiation of the cash flow of the enterprise defines it as an independent object of management in the system of organizational and economic construction of the enterprise; · cash flow for individual business transactions. In the system of the economic process of the enterprise, this type of cash flow should be considered as the primary object of independent management. 2.By types of economic activity in accordance with international standards accounting distinguish the following types of cash flows: · cash flow from operating activities. It is characterized by cash payments to suppliers of raw materials and materials; third-party performers of certain types of services that provide operational activities; wages personnel involved in the operational process, as well as managing this process; tax payments of the enterprise to the budgets of all levels and extra-budgetary funds; other payments related to the implementation of the operational process. At the same time, this type of cash flow reflects the receipt of funds from buyers of products; from tax authorities in the procedure for recalculating overpaid amounts and some other payments provided for by international accounting standards; · cash flow from investment activities. It characterizes payments and cash receipts associated with the implementation of real and financial investment, the sale of retired fixed assets and intangible assets, the rotation of long-term financial instruments of the investment portfolio and other similar cash flows serving the investment activities of the enterprise; · cash flow from financial activities. It characterizes the receipts and payments of funds associated with attracting additional equity and share capital, obtaining long-term and short-term loans and borrowings, paying cash dividends and interest on deposits of owners and some other cash flows associated with the implementation of external financing of the economic activity of the enterprise. 3.According to the direction of cash flow, there are two main types of cash flows: · positive cash flow characterizing the totality of cash inflows to the enterprise from all types of business transactions (the term "cash inflow" is used as an analogue of this term); · negative cash flow characterizing the totality of cash payments by the enterprise in the process of carrying out all types of its business operations (the term "cash outflow" is used as an analogue of this term). Characterizing these types of cash flows, you should pay attention to the high degree of their relationship. The insufficiency of volumes in time of one of these flows causes a subsequent reduction in the volumes of another type of these flows. Therefore, in the enterprise cash flow management system, both of these types of cash flows represent a single (complex) object of financial management. .According to the method of calculating the volume, the following types of cash flows of the enterprise are distinguished: · gross cash flow. It characterizes the totality of receipts or expenditures of funds in the period under consideration in the context of its individual intervals; · Net cash flow. It characterizes the difference between positive and negative cash flows (between the receipt and expenditure of funds) in the period under consideration in the context of its individual intervals. Net cash flow is the most important result of the financial activity of the enterprise, which largely determines the financial balance and the rate of increase in its market value. The calculation of the net cash flow for the enterprise as a whole, its individual structural divisions (responsibility centers), various types of economic activities or individual business transactions is carried out according to the following formula (1.3): , (1.3)
where NPV - the amount of net cash flow in the period under review; RAP - the amount of positive cash flow (cash receipts) in the period under review; ODP - the amount of negative cash flow (expenditure of funds) in the period under review. As can be seen from this formula, depending on the ratio of the volumes of positive and negative flows, the amount of net cash flow can be characterized by both positive and negative values that determine the final result of the corresponding economic activity of the enterprise and ultimately affect the formation of the balance of its monetary assets. 5.According to the level of volume sufficiency, the following types of cash flows of the enterprise are distinguished: · excess cash flow. It characterizes such a cash flow in which cash receipts significantly exceed the real need of the enterprise for their purposeful spending. Evidence of excess cash flow is a high positive value of net cash flow that is not used in the process of carrying out the economic activity of the enterprise; · scarce cash flow. It characterizes such a cash flow, in which cash receipts are significantly lower than the actual needs of the enterprise in their purposeful spending. Even with a positive value of the amount of net cash flow, it can be characterized as a deficit if this amount does not meet the planned need for spending money in all the envisaged areas of the enterprise's business activities. The negative value of the amount of net cash flow automatically makes this flow scarce. 6.According to the method of evaluation in time, the following types of cash flow are distinguished: · real cash flow. It characterizes the cash flow of the enterprise as a single comparable value, reduced in value to the current point in time; · future cash flow. It characterizes the cash flow of an enterprise as a single comparable value, reduced in value to a specific future point in time. The concept of future cash flow can also be used as its nominal value in the upcoming moment of time (or in the context of upcoming intervals of the future period), which is used for discounting in order to bring it to the present value. The considered types of cash flow of the enterprise reflect the content of the concept of estimating the value of money in time in relation to the business operations of the enterprise. 7.According to the continuity of formation in the period under review, the following types of cash flows of the enterprise are distinguished: · regular cash flow. It characterizes the flow of receipt or expenditure of funds for individual business transactions (cash flows of the same type), which in the period under consideration is carried out constantly at separate intervals of this period. The nature of the regular are most types of cash flows generated by the operating activities of the enterprise; flows associated with servicing a financial loan in all its forms; cash flows that ensure the implementation of long-term real investment projects, etc.; · discrete cash flow. It characterizes the receipt or expenditure of funds associated with the implementation of individual business operations of the enterprise in the period under review. The character of a discrete cash flow is a one-time expenditure of funds associated with the acquisition by an enterprise of an integral property complex, the purchase of a franchising license; the receipt of financial resources in the manner of gratuitous assistance, etc. Considering these types of cash flows of the enterprise, you should pay attention to the fact that they differ only within a specific time interval. With a certain minimum time interval, all cash flows of the enterprise can be considered as discrete. And vice versa - within the framework of the life cycle of an enterprise, the predominant part of its cash flows is of a regular nature. 8.According to the stability of time intervals of formation, regular cash flows are characterized by the following types: · regular cash flow with uniform time intervals within the period under review. Such a cash flow of receipt or expenditure of funds is in the nature of the annuitant (it will be discussed in detail in the process of presenting the concept of estimating the value of money over time); · regular cash flow with uneven time intervals within the period under review. An example of such a cash flow is a schedule of lease payments for leased property with uneven time intervals agreed upon by the parties for their implementation throughout the lease term of the asset. The considered classification allows more purposefully to carry out accounting, analysis and planning of various types of cash flows in the enterprise. 1.3 Cash flow information system The content of the information support system for managing cash flows, its breadth and depth are determined by the industry specifics of the activities of enterprises, their organizational and legal form of functioning, the volume and degree of diversification of economic activities and a number of other conditions. Specific indicators of this system are formed due to both external (located outside the enterprise) and internal sources of information. In the context of each of the groups of these sources, the entire set of indicators included in information system cash flow management, pre-classified . The system of indicators for information support of cash flow management generated from external sources is divided into four main groups: 1.Indicators characterizing the general economic development of the country. The system of informative indicators of this group serves as the basis for analyzing and forecasting the conditions of the external economic environment for the functioning of an enterprise when making the most important decisions in the field of organizing cash flows. The formation of a system of indicators for this group is based on the published data of state statistics. The indicators included in the first group are divided into two blocks. The first block - "Indicators of macroeconomic development" - contains the following main informative indicators: · the rate of change in the volume of the gross domestic product; · the rate of change in the volume of national income; · inflation index; · central bank discount rate. The second block - "Indicators of sectoral development" - contains the following main informative indicators for the industry to which the enterprise belongs: · the rate of change in the volume of production (sales) of products; · average profitability and profitability of product sales; · the average cost of production and sales of products; · taxation rates for income, costs and profits on core activities; · price index for industry products in the period under review; · the rate of change in the volume of investment activity of enterprises in the industry; · the share of equity and borrowed capital used in the process of economic activity of enterprises in the industry. 2.Indicators characterizing the conjuncture of the financial and commodity markets. The system of informative indicators of this group serves to make managerial decisions in the field of generating cash flows from operating activities, forming a portfolio of financial investments, and ensuring effective cash flow. The formation of a system of indicators for this group is based on the publications of periodical mass and commercial publications; stock and commodity exchanges, as well as on the relevant electronic sources of information. In this group of informative indicators, there are usually three main blocks. The first block - "Indicators of stock market conditions" - contains the following main informative data: · types of basic stock instruments circulating on the exchange and over-the-counter stock market; · quoted offer and demand prices of the main types of stock instruments; · volumes and prices of transactions for the main types of stock instruments; · composite index of price dynamics in the stock market. The second block - "Indicators of the market situation of real capital goods" - contains the following main informative indicators: · types of means of labor associated with the industry specifics of the enterprise, circulating on the exchange and over-the-counter commodity markets; · types of intangible assets offered on the market; · types of raw materials and materials offered on the exchange and over-the-counter commodity markets; · quoted prices of supply and demand for basic real capital goods; · volumes and prices of transactions for the main types of real capital goods on the exchange market; · index of price dynamics for basic capital goods. In the third block - "Indicators of market conditions finished products"- contains the following main informative indicators: · volumes of supply and demand in the relevant segments of the regional market of the enterprise's finished products; · the range of prices for certain types of finished products, taking into account their positioning in the market; · index of price dynamics for the main types of finished products on the regional (and in some cases - on the world) market. 3.Indicators characterizing the activities of contractors and competitors. The system of informative indicators of this group is used mainly for making operational management decisions on certain aspects of the formation of the enterprise's funds. These indicators are usually formed in the context of the following blocks: "Banks"; "Leasing companies"; "Insurance companies"; "Suppliers of raw materials and materials"; "Buyers of finished products"; "Competitors". The source for the formation of indicators of this group is the publication of reporting materials in the press (for certain types of economic entities, such publications are mandatory); relevant ratings of companies with the main performance indicators of their activities (for banks, insurance companies); paid business information provided by information companies (acting on a legitimate basis). The composition of the informative indicators of each block is determined by the specific goals of cash flow management. 4.Normative and regulatory indicators established by the relevant legal acts. The system of these indicators is taken into account in the process of preparing management decisions related to the peculiarities of state regulation of the enterprise's cash flows. These indicators are formed, as a rule, in the context of two blocks: "Regulatory indicators for various aspects of the economic activity of enterprises related to the formation of cash flows" and "Regulatory indicators related to the functioning of certain segments of the financial and commodity markets." The source for the formation of indicators of this group is the regulatory legal acts adopted by various government bodies. The system of indicators for information support of cash flow management generated from internal sources is divided into three groups: 1.Indicators characterizing the results of the formation of cash flows for the enterprise as a whole. The system of informative indicators of this group is widely used by both external and internal users. It is used in the process of express analysis, current planning and development of a cash flow management policy. This information gives the most generalized description of the formation of cash flows of the enterprise in a particular reporting period. The formation of a system of indicators for this group is based on the data of standardized financial accounting of the enterprise. The indicators included in this group are divided into three main blocks. The first block - "Indicators characterizing the movement of funds" - contains the data of the corresponding form of the financial statement of the enterprise. These indicators are grouped by operating, investment and financial activities and characterize both the receipt and expenditure of certain types of funds. According to this report, the volume of net cash flow of the enterprise and the dynamics of its cash balance in the period under review can be determined. The second block - "Indicators characterizing the generalized final financial results of economic activity" - contains the data of the "Report on financial results" for the corresponding period. This report is divided into three sections. In the first section - Financial results"- reflects the amount of income (revenue) from the sale of products (goods, works, services); taxes and fees paid at the expense of income; net income from the sale of products; cost of sales; other operating and non-operating income; profit or loss. In the second section - "Elements of operating costs" - reflects their main types and volumes in the reporting period in comparison with the previous period (material costs, labor costs, depreciation, etc.) In the third section - "Calculation of indicators of profitability of shares" - provides data on the amount of profit and dividends per ordinary share. The third block - "Indicators characterizing the movement of certain types of assets and capital" - contains data on the balance sheet of the enterprise. They give an idea of the dynamics of the cost of certain types of current and non-current assets of the enterprise, as well as the composition of its equity and borrowed capital. .Indicators characterizing the formation of cash flows in the context of individual structural divisions of the enterprise. The system of this group of indicators is used for the current and operational management of almost all aspects of the formation of the enterprise's cash flows for all types of its economic activities. The formation of a system of indicators for this group is based on the published information organized by the enterprise management accounting.
This type of accounting is being developed in connection with the transition of enterprises in our country to a system of accounting generally accepted in international practice, which can significantly supplement financial accounting. It is a system for accounting for all the necessary indicators that form the information base for operational management decisions (mainly in the field of managing the formation and use of profits) and planning the activities of the enterprise in the coming period. In comparison with financial management accounting, it has the following main advantages: it reflects not only cost, but also natural values of indicators (and, consequently, trends in prices for raw materials, finished products, etc.); the frequency of presentation of management accounting results fully corresponds to the need for information for making operational decisions (if necessary, information can be provided even daily); this accounting can be structured in any context - by responsibility centers, types of financial activities, etc. (with simultaneous aggregation of indicators for the whole enterprise); it can reflect individual cash flows, taking into account inflation rates, the time value of money, etc. The results of this accounting are a trade secret of the enterprise and should not be provided to external users. In the process of building an information support system for managing cash flows, management accounting is designed to form groups of indicators that reflect the volume of activities, the amount and composition of costs, the amount and composition of income received, and others. These groups of indicators are formed in the process of management accounting, usually according to the following blocks: · by regional divisions of the enterprise; · according to the "responsibility centers" of the enterprise. .Internal regulatory and planned indicators related to the formation of cash flows of the enterprise. These indicators are used in the process of current and operational control over the formation and use of the enterprise's funds. They are formed directly at the enterprise in two blocks. The first block - "The system of internal standards governing various aspects of the formation of cash flows of the enterprise" - contains standards (target indicators) for the specific consumption of funds; minimum liquidity of assets, etc. The second block - "The system of planned indicators for the formation of cash flows" - contains the entire set of indicators of current and operational plans for the economic activity of the enterprise associated with the management object under consideration. The use of all indicators of interest generated from external and internal sources makes it possible to create at each enterprise a targeted system of information support for cash flow management, focused both on making long-term decisions and on effective current management of them. Chapter 2. Methods for analyzing the cash flows of an enterprise 1 Methods of cash flow analysis that do not use discounting An important part of the mechanism for managing the cash flows of an enterprise are systems and methods for their analysis. Cash flow analysis is a process of studying the effective indicators of their formation at the enterprise in order to identify reserves for further improving the efficiency of their functioning. To solve specific problems of analytical research, a number of special systems and methods for analyzing cash flows are used, which make it possible to obtain a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the results of their multi-aspect functioning at the enterprise, both in statics and in dynamics. In the theory of financial management, depending on the methods used, the following systems of analysis carried out at the enterprise in the study of the functioning of cash flows are distinguished: horizontal financial analysis; vertical financial analysis; comparative financial analysis; analysis of financial ratios; integral financial analysis . I. Horizontal (or trend) financial analysis is based on the study of the dynamics of individual financial indicators over time. In the process of using this system of analysis, the growth (increase) rates of individual indicators of financial statements for a number of periods are calculated and general trends in their change (or trend) are determined. In the cash flow management system, the following types of horizontal (trend) financial analysis are most widely used: · Study of the dynamics of the cash flow indicators of the reporting period in comparison with the indicators of the previous period (for example, with the indicators of the previous month, quarter, year). · Study of the dynamics of cash flow indicators of the reporting period in comparison with indicators of the same period last year (for example, indicators of the second quarter of the reporting period with similar indicators of the second quarter of the previous year). This type of horizontal financial analysis is used in enterprises with pronounced seasonal features economic activity. · Study of the dynamics of cash flow indicators for a number of previous periods. The purpose of this type of analysis is to identify the trend of change in individual indicators characterizing the results of the functioning of the monetary assets of the enterprise (determining the trend line in dynamics). All types of horizontal (trend) analysis of cash flows are usually supplemented by a study of the influence of individual factors on the change in the corresponding performance indicators. The results of such an analytical study make it possible to build the corresponding dynamic factor models, which are then used in the process of planning the enterprise's cash flows. II. Vertical (or structural) financial analysis is based on the structural decomposition of individual indicators of the company's financial statements. In the process of this analysis, the share of individual structural components of aggregated financial indicators is calculated. In the cash flow management system, the following types of vertical (structural) analysis are most widely used: 1.Structural analysis of the company's cash flows by types of economic activity. Such an analysis serves as a prerequisite for calculating the efficiency indicators for generating flows in the context of individual types of activities and conducting an appropriate factor analysis of this efficiency for the enterprise as a whole. .Structural analysis of cash flows by internal divisions of the enterprise ("responsibility centers"). The results of this analysis serve as the basis for the subsequent in-depth comparative and factor analysis of the effectiveness of the formation of the company's cash flows. 3.Structural analysis of positive (negative) cash flow by individual elements of its formation. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify the most important constituent elements of the formation of a positive or negative cash flow of an enterprise, taking into account the specifics of its economic activity. III. Comparative financial analysis is based on comparing separate groups of similar indicators with each other. In the process of using this analysis system, the sizes of absolute and relative deviations of the compared indicators are calculated. In the enterprise cash flow management system, the following types of comparative financial analysis are most widely used: 1.Comparative analysis of cash flow indicators in the context of the internal structural divisions of this enterprise (its "responsibility centers"). Such an analysis is carried out for the purpose of a comparative assessment and search for reserves for the effectiveness of the formation of cash flows of the internal divisions of the enterprise. 2.Comparative analysis of cash flow indicators of individual real investment projects. Such an analysis serves as the basis for assessing the expected effectiveness of individual compared investment projects in the formation of a real investment program for an enterprise. .Comparative analysis of cash flow indicators of individual financial investment instruments. The results of this analysis are used in the process of formation and restructuring of the company's financial investment portfolio. .Comparative analysis of reporting and planned (normative) indicators of cash flow formation. Such an analysis forms the basis of cash flow controlling organized at the enterprise. In the process of this analysis, the degree of deviation of reporting indicators from planned (normative) is revealed, the reasons for these deviations are determined and conclusions are drawn about the need to adjust certain areas of the enterprise's economic activity and its cash flows. IV. The analysis of financial ratios (R-analysis) is based on the calculation of the ratio of various absolute indicators of the financial activity of the enterprise among themselves. In the process of using this system of analysis, various relative indicators are determined that characterize individual indicators of cash flows, and the degree of their influence on the overall level of the financial condition of the enterprise. In the cash flow management system, the following groups of analytical financial ratios are most widely used. 1.Coefficients characterizing the level of liquidity of cash flows. They characterize the ability of the enterprise to pay its financial obligations in a timely manner. The following indicators play the most important role in the evaluation process: a) the liquidity ratio of the cash flow of the enterprise. It shows the extent to which the company's gross positive cash flow covers its negative cash flow. The calculation of this indicator is carried out according to the following formula (2.1): , (2.1)
where - liquidity ratio of the company's cash flow in the period under review; RDP - the sum of the gross positive cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review; ODP - the sum of the gross negative cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review. b) absolute solvency ratio or (KAP). It shows the extent to which all the current financial obligations of the enterprise are secured by the means of payment available to it at a certain date. The calculation of this coefficient is carried out according to the formula (2.2): , (2.2)
where YES - the amount of monetary assets of the enterprise on a certain date; KFV - the amount of short-term financial investments of the enterprise on a certain date; - the sum of all short-term (current) financial liabilities of the enterprise on a certain date. c) the coefficient of intermediate solvency (KPP). It shows the extent to which all short-term (current) financial obligations can be met by its highly liquid assets (including ready-made means of payment). To determine this indicator, the following formula (2.3) is used: , (2.3)
where YES - the amount of monetary assets of the enterprise (average or for a certain date); KFV - the amount of short-term financial investments (average or for a certain date); DZ - the amount of current receivables of all types (average or for a certain date); - the sum of all short-term (current) financial liabilities of the enterprise (average or for a certain date). d) current solvency ratio (CTP). It shows the extent to which all debt on short-term (current) financial obligations can be satisfied at the expense of all its current (current) assets. The calculation of this indicator is made according to the formula (2.4): , (2.4)
where OA - the sum of all current assets of the enterprise (average or for a certain date); - the sum of all short-term (current) financial liabilities of the enterprise (average or for a certain date); e) the overall ratio of receivables and payables ( ). It characterizes the general ratio of calculations for these types of debts of the enterprise. The calculation of this indicator is carried out according to the formula (2.5): , (2.5)
where - the total amount of the current receivables of the enterprise of all types (average or for a certain date); - the total amount of accounts payable of the enterprise of all types (average or for a certain date); f) the ratio of receivables and payables for commercial operations ( ). This indicator characterizes the ratio of payments for purchased and delivered products. To determine this indicator, formula (2.6) is used: , (2.6)
where - the amount of receivables of the enterprise for products (goods, works, services), calculated as an average or as of a certain date; - the amount of accounts payable of the enterprise for products (goods, services, works), calculated as an average or for a certain date. 2.Coefficients characterizing the turnover of individual assets in the process of the enterprise's cash flow. To a certain extent, they allow you to evaluate the speed of the company's cash flow. For this assessment, the following coefficients are used: a) the number of turnovers of monetary assets and their equivalents in the period under review ( ). This indicator is calculated according to the following formula (2.7): , (2.7)
The average amount of short-term (current) financial investments of the enterprise (characterizing its cash equivalents) in the period under review (calculated as an average chronological); b) the period of turnover of monetary assets and their equivalents ( ). The calculation of this indicator is carried out according to the following formula (2.8): ;, (2.8)
where - the average amount of monetary assets of the enterprise in the period under review (calculated as the average chronological); - the average amount of short-term (current) financial investments of the enterprise (characterizing its cash equivalents) in the period under review (calculated as the average chronological); - one-day volume of sales of products in the period under review; - the number of turnovers of monetary assets and their equivalents in the period under review. c) the number of turnovers of current assets of the enterprise in the period under review ( ). This indicator is calculated according to the following formula (2.9): , (2.9)
where OR is the total volume of product sales in the period under review; - the average cost of current assets in the period under review (calculated as the average chronological); d) the period of turnover of current assets in days ( ). This indicator is calculated according to the following formulas (2.2): ;, (2.2)
where - the average cost of current assets in the period under review (calculated as the average chronological); - the number of turnovers of current assets in the period under review; e) the number of turnovers (KO) of all used assets in the period under review. This indicator is determined by the following formula (2.11): , (2.11)
where OR is the total volume of product sales in the period under review; - the average cost of all used assets of the enterprise in the period under review (calculated as an average chronological); f) the period of turnover of all used assets in days ( ). This indicator can be calculated using the following formulas (2.12): ;, (2.12)
where - the average cost of all used assets of the enterprise in the period under review; - one-day volume of sales of products in the period under review; D is the number of days in the period under review; - the number of turnovers of all used assets in the period under review. 3.Coefficients characterizing the level of efficiency of cash flows. They give a generalized description of the effectiveness of the formation of cash flows of the enterprise. The main of these indicators are: a) the coefficient of efficiency of the cash flow of the enterprise, for its calculation the following formula (2.13) is used: , (2.13)
where - the coefficient of efficiency of the cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review; NPV - the amount of net cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review; ODP - the sum of the gross negative cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review; b) the sufficiency ratio of the net cash flow of the enterprise. It is calculated according to the following formula 2.14): , (12.14)
where - sufficiency ratio of net cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review; NPV - the amount of net cash flow of the enterprise in the period under review; OD - the amount of principal payments on long-term and short-term loans and borrowings of the enterprise; - the sum of the increase in stocks of inventory items as part of the current assets of the enterprise; - the amount of dividends (interest) paid to the owners of the enterprise (shareholders) on invested capital (shares, shares, etc.). c) the coefficient of reinvestment of the net cash flow of the enterprise. This indicator is calculated using the following formula (2.15): , (2.15)
The rational formation of cash flows contributes to the rhythm of the operating cycle of the enterprise and ensures the growth of production volumes and product sales. At the same time, any violation of payment discipline adversely affects the formation production stocks raw materials and materials, the level of labor productivity, the sale of finished products, the position of the enterprise in the market, etc. Even for enterprises that successfully operate in the market and generate a sufficient amount of profit, insolvency can occur as a result of the imbalance of various types of cash flows over time.
On the other hand, cash flow management is an important factor in accelerating the capital turnover of an enterprise. This is due to a reduction in the duration of the operating cycle, a more economical use of own funds and a decrease in the need for borrowed sources of funds. Consequently, the efficiency of the enterprise depends entirely on the organization of the cash flow management system. This system is created to ensure the implementation of short-term and strategic plans of the enterprise, maintaining solvency and financial stability, more rational use of its assets and sources of financing, as well as minimizing the cost of financing business activities.
Cash flow management of an enterprise is an important part of the overall system for managing its financial activities.
Cash flow management is the tool with which you can achieve the desired result of the enterprise - making a profit.
But the main role in managing cash flows is given to ensuring their balance in terms of types, volumes, time intervals and other essential characteristics. To successfully solve this problem, it is necessary to introduce planning, accounting, analysis and control systems at the enterprise. After all, planning the economic activity of an enterprise in general and cash flow in particular significantly increases the efficiency of cash flow management, which leads to:
- - reduction of the current needs of the enterprise in them on the basis of an increase in the turnover of monetary assets and receivables, as well as the choice of a rational structure of cash flows;
- - efficient use temporarily free cash (including insurance balances) by making financial investments of the enterprise;
- - ensuring a surplus of funds and the necessary solvency of the enterprise in the current period by synchronizing positive and negative cash flows in the context of each time interval.
In this course work, the concept of cash flows was considered, their role in the functioning of an enterprise was analyzed, a theoretical description of the methods for studying cash flows was given, forecasting methods were applied to describe the future state of the main indicators of the state of cash flows in relation to the object of study.
Accounts receivable and accounts payable, included in the credit policy of the enterprise, is one of the most important blocks of managing the cash flow of trade enterprises due to their significant share in the balance sheet structure, as well as their impact on gross cash flows. As part of the credit policy of the enterprise, tasks are solved that determine its role in managing the cash flow at the enterprise: maximizing a positive cash flow; reduction in the cost of financing investments of working capital in receivables and inventories; synchronization of cash inflows and outflows; ensuring the liquidity and solvency of the enterprise.
- - try to get more profit from the main activity;
- - direct free funds for financial activities;
- - try to reduce the cost of maintaining premises and other assets.
Thus, cash flow management is the most important element of the financial policy of the enterprise; it permeates the entire management system of the enterprise. The importance and importance of cash flow management in an enterprise cannot be overestimated, since not only the stability of an enterprise in a specific period of time depends on its quality and efficiency, but also the ability to further development to achieve long-term financial success.
In the process of managing cash flows, one constantly has to reckon with the factor of inflation, which over time devalues the value of funds in circulation.
The influence of inflation affects many aspects of the formation of cash flows of the enterprise.
In the process of inflation, there is a relative underestimation of the value of individual tangible assets used by the enterprise (fixed assets, inventories, etc.); decrease in the real value of its monetary and other financial assets (accounts receivable, retained earnings, financial investment instruments), etc. The inflation factor has a particularly strong effect on the long-term financial operations of an enterprise related to cash flow management.
The stability of the manifestation of the inflation factor and its active impact on the results of financial activities
The effectiveness of an enterprise in the field of managing its cash flows determines the need to constantly take into account the influence of this factor.
The concept of taking into account the influence of the inflation factor in the management of the company's cash flows lies in the need for a real reflection of their value, as well as in ensuring compensation for their losses caused by inflationary processes in the implementation of various financial transactions.
The implementation of this concept in the practice of cash flow management and the use of its corresponding methodological tools require a preliminary consideration of a number of basic concepts related to it. Below is the content of the main of these concepts.
INFLATION - the process of constant excess of the growth rate of the money supply over the commodity (including the cost of services), as a result of which there is an overflow of circulation channels with money, accompanied by their depreciation and rising prices.
RATE OF INFLATION - an indicator that characterizes the amount of depreciation (decrease in purchasing power) of money in a certain period, expressed as an increase in the average price level as a percentage of their face value at the beginning of the period.
ACTUAL RATE OF INFLATION - an indicator that characterizes the real increase in the average price level in the past period under review.
EXPECTED RATE OF INFLATION - a forecast indicator that characterizes a possible increase in the average price level in the upcoming period under consideration.
INFLATION INDEX - an indicator that characterizes the general increase in the price level in a certain period, determined by summing their base level at the beginning of the period (taken as a unit) and the inflation rate in the period under review (expressed as a decimal fraction).
NOMINAL CASH AMOUNT -
assessment of the size of monetary assets in the relevant monetary units without taking into account changes in the purchasing value of money in the period under review.
REAL AMOUNT OF CASH - an estimate of the size of monetary assets, taking into account changes in the level of the purchasing value of money in the period under review, caused by inflation.
NOMINAL INTEREST RATE - the interest rate established without taking into account the change in the purchasing value of money due to inflation (or the general interest rate, in which its inflationary component is not eliminated).
REAL INTEREST RATE - the interest rate established taking into account changes in the purchasing value of money in the period under review due to inflation.
INFLATION PREMIUM - additional income paid (or expected to be paid) to a creditor or investor in order to compensate for financial losses from the depreciation of money due to inflation. The level of this income is usually equated to the rate of inflation.
Taking into account the considered basic concepts, a specific methodological toolkit is formed that allows taking into account the inflation factor in the process of managing the enterprise's cash flows. This methodological toolkit is differentiated in the context of the following basic calculations (Fig. 4.7).
I. The methodological tools for forecasting the annual rate and inflation index are based on the expected average monthly rates. Such information is contained in the published forecasts of the country's economic and social development for the coming period. The results of forecasting serve as the basis for the subsequent factor of inflation in the financial activity of the enterprise.
where TIG is the projected annual inflation rate, expressed as a decimal fraction;
TIM is the expected average monthly inflation rate in the coming period, expressed as a decimal fraction.
Example: It is necessary to determine the annual inflation rate if, in accordance with the forecast of the country's economic and social development (or its own forecast calculations), the expected average monthly inflation rate is set at 3%.
Substituting this value into the formula, we get: The projected annual inflation rate will be:
where IGI is the forecasted annual inflation index, expressed as a decimal fraction;
TIG is the projected annual inflation rate, expressed as a decimal fraction (calculated using the previously given formula);
TIM is the expected average monthly inflation rate, expressed as a decimal fraction.
Example: Based on the conditions of the previous example, it is necessary to determine the projected annual inflation index.
It is equal to: I + 0.4258 - 1.4258 (or 142.6%); or (1 + 0.03)12 = 1.4258 (or 142.6%).
II. The methodological toolkit for setting the real interest rate, taking into account the inflation factor, is based on its predicted nominal level in the financial market (the results of such a forecast are usually reflected in the prices of futures and option contracts concluded on the stock exchange) and the results of the annual inflation rate forecast. The calculation of the real interest rate, taking into account the inflation factor, is based on the Fisher Model, which has the following form:
where Ip - real interest rate (actual or forecasted in a certain period), expressed as a decimal fraction;
I- nominal interest rate (actual or forecasted in a certain period), expressed as a decimal fraction;
TI - inflation rate (actual or forecasted in a certain period), expressed as a decimal fraction.
The nominal annual interest rate on options and futures operations on the stock exchange for the coming year was 19%;
The projected annual inflation rate is 7%.
Substituting these data into the Fisher Model, we get:
The real annual interest rate is projected
where SH is the nominal future value of the deposit (cash), taking into account the inflation factor;
P is the initial amount of the deposit;
/p - real interest rate, expressed as a decimal fraction;
Example: Determine the nominal future value of the deposit, taking into account the inflation factor under the following conditions:
The initial deposit amount is 1000 units. den. units;
The real annual interest rate used to increase the value of the deposit is 20%;
The total deposit placement period is 3 years with interest accrued once a year.
The nominal future value of the deposit, taking into account the inflation factor, =
1000 x 1(1 + 0.20) x(1 + 0.12)]3 = 2428 s. den. units
1. When assessing the present value of funds, taking into account the inflation factor, the following formula is used:
where Рр is the real real amount of the deposit (cash), taking into account the inflation factor;
5Н - the expected nominal future value of the contribution (cash);
/p - real interest rate used in the process of discounting the cost, expressed as a decimal fraction;
TI - predicted inflation rate, expressed as a decimal fraction; n - the number of intervals for which each interest payment is made in the total stipulated period of time.
Example: It is necessary to determine the real present value of cash under the following conditions:
The expected nominal future value of cash is $1,000. den. units
The real interest rate used in the value discounting process is 20% per annum;
The projected annual inflation rate is 12%;
The discount period is 3 years and its interval is 1 year.
Substituting these indicators in the above formula, we get:
IV. The methodological tools for the formation of the required level of profitability of financial transactions, taking into account the inflation factor, on the one hand, are designed to ensure the calculation of the amount and level of the “inflation premium”, and on the other hand, the calculation of the total level of nominal income, which ensures compensation for inflationary losses and obtaining the required level of real profit.
1. When determining the required amount of the inflation premium, the following formula is used:
where Pi is the amount of inflation premium in a certain period;
P is the initial cost of funds; TI-rate of inflation in the period under review, expressed as a decimal fraction.
The initial cost of cash is 1000 cu. den. units;
The projected annual inflation rate is 12%.
Substituting these values into the formula, we get: The sum of the inflation premium is =
1000 x 0.12 - 120 cu. den. units (the level of the inflation premium is equal to the rate of inflation).
1. When determining the total amount of required income from a financial transaction, taking into account the inflation factor, the following formula is used:
Dn=Dr ■*" Pi >
where Дн is the total nominal amount of the required income from a financial transaction, taking into account the inflation factor in the period under review;
D - the real amount of the required income from a financial transaction in the period under review, calculated on simple or compound interest using the real interest rate;
Pi is the sum of the inflation premium in the period under review.
The dependence of the total amount of required income and the size of the inflationary premium on the inflation rate can be represented graphically (Fig. 4.9).
2. When determining the required level of profitability of financial transactions, taking into account the inflation factor, the following formula is used:
where UDN is the required level of profitability of financial transactions, taking into account the inflation factor, expressed as a decimal fraction;
Дн - the total nominal amount of the required income from a financial transaction in the period under review.
Dr is the real amount of required income from a financial transaction in the period under review.
It should be noted that the forecasting of inflation rates is a rather complex and time-consuming probabilistic process, which is largely influenced by subjective factors. Therefore, in the practice of asset management, a simpler method of accounting for the inflation factor can be applied. For this purpose, the value of funds in the event of their subsequent increase or the amount of the required income in the event of its subsequent discounting is recalculated in advance from the national currency into one of the “strong” (i.e. least subject to inflation) freely convertible currencies at the exchange rate at the time of the calculations. The process of accruing or discounting the value is then carried out at the real interest rate (the minimum real rate of return on capital). This method of estimating the present or future value of cash flows makes it possible to completely exclude the inflation factor within the country from its calculations.
Introduction
CHAPTER 1. INFLATION AND ITS IMPACT ON BUSINESS PERFORMANCE 7
1.1. Inflation and trends in its change in modern Russia 7
1.2. Inflation and Industrial Enterprise Risks 22
1.3. Formation of cash flows of an industrial enterprise 37
CHAPTER 2. IMPACT OF INFLATION ON THE CASH FLOW OF AN INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE 50
2.1. Factors affecting the formation of cash flows 50
2.2. Accounting for inflation in the cash flows of an industrial enterprise ... 58
2.3. Model of formation of cash flows taking into account the factor of inflation 74
CHAPTER 3. FORMATION OF CASH FLOWS OF THE ENTERPRISE 88
3.1. Cash flow formation method taking into account the inflation factor 88
3.2. Using the Cash Flow Methodology 102
3.3. Implementation of a methodology for the formation of cash flows of an industrial enterprise in terms of inflation 1 12
CONCLUSION 122
REFERENCES 127
APPS 138
Introduction to work
Relevance of the research topic. The main trend of economic development Russian Federation in 1999 - 2002 is a stable growth. Over the past three years, GDP growth has amounted to 21%: in 1999 - 5.4%, in 2000 - 9%, in 2001 - 5%. In 2002, it is planned to reach -3.9%. GDP growth demonstrates that the Russian economy is recovering from the financial crisis of 1998, but the current growth rates are insufficient to restore the lost economic potential. In addition, in order to assess real growth rates, it is necessary to take into account the significant influence of the inflation factor, which distorts the achieved indicators.
High inflation remains one of the leading destabilizing factors for the Russian economy. Thus, the inflation rate in 1999 was 36.5%, in 2000 -20.2%, by 2001 it decreased to 18.6%, in 2002 this indicator is planned at the level of 14%.
The presence of the inflationary factor has a significant impact on the financial and economic activities of enterprises: it reduces investment opportunities, creates problems with liquidity, and makes it difficult to assess the financial condition. Difficulties in estimating in terms of inflation are due to the fact that financial indicators are calculated on the basis of financial statements compiled with a certain frequency. The discreteness of the preparation of financial statements in terms of inflation distorts the financial performance of the enterprise, since the change in the value of the company's assets occurs continuously.
In order to effectively manage the financial resources of an enterprise, attract and spend funds, ensure an optimal combination of risk and profitability, it is necessary to constantly take into account the influence of the inflation factor on the cash flows of an enterprise, which determined the relevance of the topic of the dissertation research.
The degree of development of the problem.
Development of theoretical and
problems of formation of cash flows of an industrial enterprise
Yatiya is enough new theme for Russian science. Separate during
Questions that reveal the essence of the formation of cash flows on pro
industrial enterprises are reflected in the works of such scientists as M.Yu. Alec
seev, I.T. Balabanov, I.A. Blank, Yu.F. Brigham, O.V. Goncharuk,
V.M. Granaturov, P.F. Drucker, B.C. Kabakov, V.V. Kovalev, V.A. Lyalin, M.V.
Romanovsky, E.S. Stoyanova, L.D. Sheremet, V.D. Shopenko.
At the same time, issues related to the formation of cash flows of an industrial enterprise in conditions of inflation, the determination of methods for accounting for the inflation factor in them, the formation of a cash flow management system in conditions of inflation, the influence of the inflation factor on the activities of enterprises are not sufficiently developed in domestic literature.
Purpose and objectives of the study. The purpose of the dissertation research is the development and scientific substantiation of methodological provisions and practical recommendations for improving the system of cash flow formation, taking into account the inflation factor when planning and forecasting the work of an industrial enterprise.
To achieve the goal of the study, the following main tasks were set:
determine the essence of the enterprise's cash flow, its criteria and indicators, identify the features of cash flows in modern conditions in Russia;
to classify the factors influencing the formation of cash flows of enterprises;
to analyze the influence of the inflation factor on the formation of cash flows of enterprises;
develop methodological provisions for the formation of a system for modeling the cash flows of industrial enterprises;
propose a method for accounting for the inflation factor in cash flows
enterprises.
Subject of study is the process of formation of cash flows of the enterprise in a changing external and internal environment.
Object of study are industrial enterprises of various organizational and legal forms.
Theoretical and methodological basis research. The theoretical basis of the dissertation research was the works of domestic and foreign authors devoted to the problems of the formation of cash flows. To solve the problems posed in the work, methods of statistical research, classification methods, and structural analysis were used as tools. The study was conducted using general methods scientific knowledge: observations, comparisons, analysis and synthesis, allowing the most complete study of the phenomenon under study. The information base of the study was the laws of the Russian Federation, decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, decrees of the government of the Russian Federation, instructions, regulations and letters from ministries and departments, statistical data characterizing the state of the economy and financial system, financial performance of industrial enterprises.
Scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the dissertation work is as follows:
a classification of factors influencing the formation of cash flows of an industrial enterprise is proposed;
a model for the formation of enterprise cash flows was developed taking into account the inflation factor;
proposed measures that reduce the impact of the inflation factor on the cash flows of an industrial enterprise;
developed a methodology for assessing the effect of the implementation of measures,
reducing the influence of the inflation factor in the formation of the company's cash flows.
Practical significance. The practical significance of the dissertation work lies in the fact that the methodological provisions developed by the author, practical recommendations and conclusions can be used in the formation of cash flows of industrial enterprises, taking into account the inflation factor. Theoretical provisions can be used in the educational process when reading the courses "Financial Management", "Financial Management in International Firms", "Finance of Enterprises", "Cash Flow Management".
Approbation of the research results. The results of the study and guidelines for the formation of cash flows of industrial enterprises were discussed and approved at the interuniversity conferences of St. Petersburg State Institute of Economics and Economics "Actual problems of finance and banking at the present stage" in 1998 - 2002.
Inflation and tendencies of its change in modern Russia
AT economic literature There is no single and unambiguous definition of inflation. Inflation means:
1) an excessive increase in cash paper money in circulation and the volume of non-cash supply of goods and services compared to the real one;
2) decrease in the purchasing power of money (their depreciation);
3) a general long-term price increase. .
Inflation in transition economies and economies with emerging markets has its own internal specifics. The nature and mechanisms of Russian inflation were studied by domestic economists M. Afanasiev, E.V. Balatsky, A. Belousov, D. Belousov, R. Belousov, I. Berezin, A. E. Varshavsky, O. Vite, M. Delyagin, .Illarionov, A.Klepach, L.N. Krasavina, S.M. Nikitin, N. Nozdran, A.K. Pitelin, V. M. Polterovich, V. Popov, V. F. Pugachev, A. Yu. Shenaev, as well as American scientists M.Bernshtam, V.Furman, B.Ickes.
The problem of inflation itself is devoted to both domestic and foreign literature. In a number of domestic publications, the general patterns of inflation development, the internationalization of inflationary processes in the world economy, the dynamics of loan interest are considered, inflationary processes in the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries are analyzed. These issues are also covered in a number of other modern domestic publications, and there is also literature on the issues of overcoming inflation in Russia. Inflation is the depreciation of paper money (a drop in their purchasing power) caused in a market economy by rising prices. In economies where powerful non-market forces operate (a command-and-control economy or a transitional economy from one form to another), there are also two more parallel processes - a commodity deficit that is subject to periodic intensification and a decrease in the quality of goods and services.
The development of inflation problems was initially based on understanding this phenomenon as a purely monetary phenomenon. John Lowe wrote that additional precious metals or paper money would be absorbed by borrowers due to ample profit opportunities, and believed that the income paid earlier would kick-start a new wave of consumer demand. Lowe believed that prices might actually go down. Lowe's findings suggest a high elasticity of the supply of goods, where a small increase in price will lead to a large increase in supply. Low stressed the need for a gradual increase in the money supply so as not to affect price levels and wages. Introduction by John Law to France in the 17th century. paper money ended in runaway inflation and led to the collapse of his system.
Catillon, in his Essay on the Nature of Commerce, written in the 1620s but published in 1755, noted that it was rather difficult to determine how and in what proportion an increase in the money supply increases prices. Catillon describes how increased production from domestic gold mines first affects industry incomes, then consumer goods spending, then food prices, causing farmers' incomes to rise and real wages to fall, leading to pressure on the monetary level of wages. and subsequent cycles of increased income and expenditure and rising prices.
K. Marx's theory of money was based on the fact that some commodity with value must necessarily act as money (because only in this capacity can money fulfill its first and decisive measure of value).
Factors affecting the formation of cash flows
The process of forming the cash flows of an enterprise is an important part of its overall system of financial activity. This process allows you to solve a variety of problems of financial management and subordinate to its main goal.
The process of forming the cash flows of an enterprise is based on certain principles, the main of which are:
1. The principle of informative reliability. Like every system, the formation of the company's cash flows must be provided with the necessary information base. The creation of such an information base presents certain difficulties, since there is no direct financial reporting based on uniform methodological principles of accounting. Differences in accounting methods in our country from those accepted in international practice further complicate the task of forming a reliable information base for the formation of enterprise cash flows. Under these conditions, ensuring the principle of informative reliability is associated with the implementation of complex calculations that require the unification of methodological approaches;
2. The principle of ensuring balance. The formation of cash flows of an enterprise deals with many of their types and varieties, considered in the process of their classification. Their subordination to the common goals and objectives of management requires balancing the cash flows of the enterprise by types, volumes, time intervals and other essential characteristics; 3. The principle of ensuring efficiency. The cash flows of the enterprise are characterized by a significant unevenness of the receipt and expenditure of funds in the context of individual time intervals, which leads to the formation of significant amounts of temporarily free cash assets of the enterprise. In essence, these temporarily free cash balances are in the nature of non-productive assets (until they are used in the economic process), which lose their value over time, from inflation and for other reasons. The implementation of the principle of efficiency in the process of managing cash flows is to ensure their effective use by making financial investments of the enterprise;
4. The principle of providing liquidity. The high unevenness of certain types of cash flows generates a temporary shortage of funds of the enterprise, which adversely affects the level of its solvency. Therefore, in the process of managing cash flows, it is necessary to ensure a sufficient level of their liquidity throughout the entire period under review. The implementation of this principle is ensured by appropriate synchronization of positive and negative cash flows in the context of each time interval of the period under consideration.
Taking into account the considered principles, a specific process of forming the cash flows of an enterprise is organized. The main purpose of the formation of cash flows is to ensure the financial balance of the enterprise in the process of its development by balancing the volume of receipts and expenditures of funds and their synchronization in time.
Cash flow formation method taking into account the inflation factor
Most Russian enterprises do not have a clear development strategy, the planning and control system at the enterprise is fragmented, many procedures and functions are duplicated, the process of setting tasks and monitoring their implementation is formal.
The formation of cash flows must be carried out so that the enterprise is able to meet the planned requirements, financial plans must be compatible with the corporate plan. The assumptions on which the projections are based are clearly stated and elements of possible changes in the future are indicated. The financial consequences of accepting proposals on terms of profit, costs, sales prices, turnover must be analyzed and clarified.
Modeling cash flows taking into account the inflation factor has a number of features:
1. The main difference between the options developed and evaluated taking into account inflation is that the conditions for their implementation and the results are not considered certain with a probability equal to 1, in other words, they are considered absolutely non-deterministic. In this regard, it is necessary to take into account the entire range of possible values of key parameters, while considering the probabilities of each possible variant.
2. The influence of various factors inevitably leads to the fact that the content, composition of cash flows and project materials change significantly. This circumstance necessitates the use of new modeling methods. The content of modeling under inflation conditions consists of the following elements:
1. The essence of the methodology for the formation of cash flows in terms of inflation is reduced to modeling cash flows, taking into account this condition.
2. Purpose: to build a predictive model of cash flows in which the inflation factor would have the least influence.
3. Main tasks: building a predictive model of the volume of sales, determining the optimal strategy in the face of market uncertainty, optimizing investments, assessing inflationary impacts on each element of the cash flow of an industrial enterprise.
4. Methods: forecasting, optimization, diversification, modeling.
5. Tools: operations research, game theory and other economic and mathematical methods.
6. Decision-making criterion (calculation of indicators for assessing cash flows).
The formation of an enterprise's cash flow, taking into account the inflation factor, is based on the model given in the second chapter and consists of the following stages.