18.06.2014 81 734 48 Reading time: 15 min.

In this article, I want to tell what does the exchange rate depend on, and consider the main factors affecting the exchange rate. As you know, the exchange rate is one of the most important countries, and is very important for effective trading. Therefore, any person who wants to put in order and secure personal finances should have a good understanding of what the exchange rate depends on in order to quickly predict its changes and apply them in practice in order to increase their own financial well-being.

Factors affecting the exchange rate

Trade balance of the state

The trade balance is the ratio of export and import operations. When exporting goods and services, foreign exchange earnings enter the country, and when importing, on the contrary, foreign currency leaves the country. Therefore, if the trade balance is negative, it is biased towards imports (the country imports more than it exports), this always puts pressure on the national currency, its exchange rate decreases, since the country has a shortage of foreign currency. Conversely, when the trade balance is positive, skewed towards exports (the country exports more than it imports), the national currency always appreciates, since the country has an abundance of foreign currency.

However, a positive trade balance is not always good, especially if its balance (the difference between exports and imports) is very large. An overvalued country's currency is just as bad as an undervalued one, and maybe even worse. Indeed, in this case, the cost of its goods grows, and they become uncompetitive in foreign markets. In such a situation, the Central Bank of the country takes actions aimed not at strengthening, but at reducing the exchange rate of the national currency. For example, 2-3 years ago it happened in Japan.

The trade balance is one of the key factors affecting the exchange rate. Ideally, the country's trade balance should be close to zero (that is, exports should be approximately equal to imports) - in this case, the exchange rate will be the most stable.

Macroeconomic indicators of the country

This includes indicators such as the inflation rate, unemployment rate, gross domestic product, etc. Each country calculates its most important indicators, but the main ones are always similar. All these data characterize their directions of development of the state economy and have an impact on the exchange rate. For example, high inflation and unemployment always have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the national currency, and production growth, on the contrary, supports and strengthens the national currency.

The exchange rate is affected by both actual and forecast indicators, and especially sharp jumps in rates can be observed during the release of the indicator, if its actual value did not coincide with the forecast one.

Policy of the Central Bank of the country

The policy of the Central Bank is one of the fundamental factors. Here we should consider several directions of actions carried out by the Central Banks of the states, which have a strong influence on the exchange rate.

Issue of money

In most cases, additional emission stimulates the depreciation of the national currency, because its money supply is growing, which means that the value of money is falling. But not always: for example, the US Federal Reserve System almost “continuously” prints new dollars, and they still continue to be the strongest world currency, since other monetary regulation instruments are correctly used there to curb dollar inflation.

Currency interventions

When the Central Bank needs to strengthen or weaken the national currency, it spends, that is, it sells or buys large lots of foreign currency at a low or high rate on the interbank foreign exchange market of the country, thereby reducing or increasing its value. All this happens at the expense of the state's foreign exchange reserves, so the larger the country's foreign exchange reserves, the more opportunities the Central Bank has to regulate the exchange rate.

Foreign exchange interventions, as a rule, have a temporary effect. For a permanent strengthening or weakening of the exchange rate will require the influence of other factors.

Discount rate

Another regulator of the Central Bank - or the refinancing rate - is the percentage at which the Central Bank can issue loans to commercial banks. The lower it is, the more accessible credit resources, the more loans are issued to the economy, the more goods and services are produced, and, therefore, the more stable the exchange rate of the national currency. Practice shows that countries with the lowest interest rates have the strongest currencies in the world.

Operations with debt obligations

If the Central Bank wants to increase the exchange rate of the national currency, it issues and sells to legal entities and individuals its debt obligations (the so-called state internal loan bonds or treasury bonds) - securities that provide a fixed income and the opportunity to earn on the growth of their value. Thus, he withdraws the money supply of the national currency, it becomes smaller, which means that its value increases. The yield of such bonds is directly dependent on how much money the Central Bank plans to raise, and their reliability is guaranteed by the state.

When it is necessary to reduce the exchange rate of the national currency, the Central Bank, on the contrary, begins to buy up its obligations, increasing their value, thereby increasing the money supply.

Verbal Interventions

Many central bank policy instruments can affect the exchange rate, even if they are not actually applied, but are the so-called. "verbal", that is, voiced only in words. For example, the Central Bank declares that it plans to conduct a major foreign exchange intervention, traders in the markets, in anticipation of the strengthening of the national currency, begin to buy it, and the rate rises naturally, even without the actual implementation of this intervention.

The Central Bank is the body in the state, which is entrusted with maintaining a stable exchange rate of the national currency, therefore, it always has a number of effective levers in reserve, which it uses as necessary and possible.

Large investment projects and foreign trade contracts

Speaking about what the exchange rate depends on, it should be noted, so to speak, the future plans of the state, which are directly or indirectly related to the inflow or outflow of foreign currency. The implementation of such projects may have an impact on the trade balance, and this is the main factor affecting the exchange rate.

The implementation of large investment projects can plan both an outflow and an inflow of foreign currency, large export contracts involve an inflow of foreign exchange earnings, and import contracts - its outflow. If this is planned (for example, contracts have already been approved and signed), further actions may affect the exchange rate.

Public confidence in the national currency

The extent to which the population trusts the currency of their country greatly affects the exchange rate. If people prefer, it means that there is always an increased demand for it, which will have a negative impact on the national currency. And this demand, if it exists, is very difficult to stop. Even if the Central Bank begins to apply its regulators, for example, limits the sale of foreign currency, imposes additional fees on these transactions, prohibits foreign currency deposits, etc., this often leads to the opposite effect: the black market of foreign currency begins to work, where it is sold even more expensive , panic begins among people, currency hype, which leads to sharp jumps in the exchange rate.

During a period of panic, a situation always arises when (even with large commissions) in order to maintain a currency position, which further spins the black market and inflates the exchange rate to unthinkable limits. Surely all of you periodically observe a similar situation.

By creating a rush demand for the currency, people themselves provoke its growth. The preferences of the population and panic moods are very important factors affecting the exchange rate. In some situations, they are even the only ones! (that is, there are no other serious prerequisites for the growth of the foreign exchange rate, but it is growing solely because of panic). As a result, this always leads to the same rapid fall in the exchange rate, and all those who bought the currency at the peak of the panic are at a loss. Therefore, always think carefully, and do not panic in the absence of other factors affecting the exchange rate!

Currency speculation

It often happens that large participants in the interbank (or even global) foreign exchange market deliberately “swing” the exchange rate in order to obtain speculative earnings. Seeing such a case, the Central Bank may intervene in the process, imposing certain sanctions on these participants, but nevertheless, such a situation is far from uncommon, and everyone who is involved has probably seen it more than once.

The so-called "currency swing" can have a very serious impact on the exchange rate, but it will be short-lived, so this situation can be used to earn money, but in no case to transfer your savings from one currency to another.

Force majeure

And, finally, speaking about the factors influencing the exchange rate, one cannot fail to mention force majeure circumstances. For example, military actions, serious protest movements, mass strikes, terrorist attacks, etc. also always have a serious impact on the exchange rate of the country in which it occurs. This impact can be both short-term, if the circumstance is quickly eliminated, or lingering, if it continues for a long time, or has led to irreversible consequences in the economy and the financial sector, requiring a long recovery.

For example, everyone probably remembers that when a major terrorist attack took place in the United States on September 11, 2001, the dollar exchange rate fell sharply around the world. However, this fall was short-lived.

I have only briefly listed the main factors affecting the exchange rate. Of course, you can consider each of them in more detail, but this information will already be enough to navigate the currency pricing and learn to correctly predict changes in the exchange rate, which will allow you to avoid mistakes and will find its positive reflection on the state of your personal finances.

That's all. The site strives to ensure that your financial literacy always meets the requirements of current realities. Stay with us and stay tuned for updates. See you soon!

Estimate:

The ruble in certain periods of history (1998, 2008, 2014-2015) showed quite strong volatility. This made the population nervous and massively the US and the euro at their peak value. In such conditions, it is extremely necessary to understand the principles of formation of exchange rates and, in particular, the exchange rate of the ruble itself. Do you want to figure it out? Read our article, in simple language, for "dummies", it is told what determines the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar against the ruble.

The concept and history of the formation of the ruble exchange rate

The exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar is set by the Bank of Russia on a daily basis on business days. The calculation is based on the results of trading on the dollar / ruble pair. The established rate comes into force the next day. Moreover, today individuals (customers of brokerage companies) can buy foreign currency and withdraw it to their bank accounts directly at the currency trading of the Moscow Exchange. The exchange rates of other currencies against the ruble, which are published by the Bank of Russia, are set based on their exchange rates against the US dollar on the international currency market, as well as on the basis of the official exchange rates of these currencies against the US dollar published by the central banks of these countries.

The exchange rates against the ruble of the countries participating in the economic and monetary unions are calculated on the basis of the official euro-ruble exchange rate using approved conversion factors.

The ruble exchange rate in different years was formed in different ways and has undergone many changes. Thus, since 1999, the Bank of Russia has formed the exchange rate of the ruble in the regime of a managed floating exchange rate. This made it possible to somewhat mitigate the influence of various kinds of external factors on the ruble exchange rate and the country's economy as a whole.

Since 2005, the Central Bank began to use the ruble value of the dual-currency basket, which consisted of the US dollar and the euro, to calculate the national currency exchange rate.

Since 2009, the ruble exchange rate has been formed by automatically adjusting the boundaries of the range of acceptable values ​​for the value of the dual-currency basket. At the same time, foreign exchange interventions were carried out to maintain the ruble exchange rate in the required range. This is the name given to the purchase or sale of a sufficiently large amount of currency in a certain time interval in order to maintain (increase / weaken) the national currency exchange rate in the required range in accordance with the established policy for the formation of the ruble exchange rate by the Bank of Russia.

In 2010, the Bank of Russia abolished the fixed limits for the value of the dual-currency basket, which previously amounted to 26-41 rubles. From that moment on, the rate was formed in a managed floating exchange rate regime, in accordance with which there were no fixed restrictions, but the Bank of Russia carried out its interventions to smooth out strong fluctuations, helping to remove the shock effect on the population and foreign exchange agents. To implement its policy, the Bank of Russia used as a guideline the value of the dual-currency basket, calculated in the proportion of 55 cents and 45 euro cents. Although this cost was floating, it was still subject to adjustment depending on the volume of foreign exchange interventions carried out by the Bank of Russia. Moreover, at the end of the summer of 2014, the acceptable range for the value of the dual-currency basket was 9 rubles.

This policy was implemented until November 10, 2014. Since that date, the ruble has actually moved to a free exchange rate (determined by supply and demand in foreign exchange auctions). The oscillation limits that were in effect were cancelled. Elvira Nabiullina said that although the borders held back the ruble from the pressure of external factors, they carried the threat of additional demand for the currency. However, the Bank of Russia reserved the right to intervene in case of threats to the stability of the economy. Thus, the ruble moved to a floating exchange rate, which is influenced by supply and demand, depending on a combination of both economic and political factors.

What determines the exchange rate of the ruble in Russia

There are a lot of factors affecting the value of the ruble, and the intensity of their influence in different periods may be different. Economic factors include interest rates, inflation and the balance of payments.

Interest rates actually show the value of money - the lower the interest rate, the more actively lending and business development, the greater the money supply. And the more money - so they become cheaper, which means that inflation begins to increase. If interest rates rise, then money becomes more expensive, and starts to slow down, which moves the exchange rate up. But high rates can lead to the stagnation of the economy, as businesses will have to borrow at a higher price.

Inflation is important because it actually shows the cost of depreciating money. Traditionally, investors prefer to invest in currencies with a lower inflation rate. Actually, for this reason (more precisely, one of them), Russians love to keep money in US dollars, where inflation averages about 2%, which is lower than in Russia. It is extremely important to understand the dynamics of the balance of payments - the difference between the amounts coming from foreign countries and going abroad. The fact is that in order to purchase domestic goods and services, foreigners buy rubles, thereby supporting the demand for them. And if the state buys imports to a greater extent, then it has to sell rubles for foreign currency, which reduces the ruble exchange rate. That is, a positive balance of payments moves the ruble up, and a negative one down.

However, other factors can also influence the ruble exchange rate - for example, statements by major political figures and foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Russia. Also, in a sense, the exchange rate of the ruble depends on the price of oil. It should be understood that if the general vector of economic development is directed upwards, then the currency of a given country becomes more expensive, and if the economy declines, it becomes cheaper.

Conclusion

The formation of the ruble exchange rate is a multifactorial process that may change from time to time. But in order for money to work as efficiently as possible and not become cheaper, it is extremely important to understand how the national currency exchange rate is formed.

I'm sure some would sell their souls to be able to predict the ruble exchange rate. However, few succeed with great accuracy and regularity. Are there people who can give an accurate forecast? Surely those who manage our economy should certainly know what will happen to the national currency. In 2014, the ruble depreciated against the currency twice. Let's first recall what the people responsible for the Russian economy said about the ruble exchange rate.

What did officials say about the ruble exchange rate in 2014?

The ruble began its weakening immediately from the beginning of 2014. In January 2014, the ruble fell against the dollar by 6.8%, and against the euro - by 6.2%. The population was worried about the devaluation, but what did the officials say?

“Recently, there has been some trend towards the depreciation of the ruble, associated with the policy of the Fed and the policy of the ECB. But this process (depreciation of the ruble) will naturally end, that is, when the ruble approaches its equilibrium values, and according to our estimates, it is not far from them, the ruble can move further in any direction, ”Ksenia, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, told Interfax Yudaev.

“Indeed, since the beginning of the year we have seen some depreciation of the ruble, about 3.6%. In principle, this is not much, I do not see any problems here. The policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the monetary authorities is to make the ruble more and more freely floating. This is absolutely correct,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was quoted by Prime as saying.

“I believe that in February-March the ruble should return to the equilibrium rate of 33 rubles per dollar. I seriously think so! Personally, I didn’t run to transfer my money anywhere for 35 rubles - this is crazy! And I really feel sorry for people who buy a dollar for 35 rubles, because the likelihood that they will lose their money is high,” Yulia Tseplyaeva, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Sberbank, told Slon.

“If now there is some stability in foreign economic and economic terms, then the ruble should no longer weaken and the opposite process is possible - the flow of funds from foreign currency to rubles. But this process is not fast,” Vedomosti quotes Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

"Do not panic. Ultimately, what worries us is how the value of our rubles will change in our country. Since inflation will be under control, by and large, what the exchange rate will be is of no importance,” Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev quotes the BBC.

“Of course, the price of oil affects the ruble exchange rate, but I would like to emphasize that all these factors operate in a limited period of time,” said Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Bank of Russia.

“You know that today the exchange rate of the ruble is subject to significant fluctuations. Our financial authorities are taking the necessary measures. The Central Bank of the country continues its policy of inflation targeting... The jumps that we are seeing in the foreign exchange market will soon stop,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

“Amounts of $10,000 and €10,000 can hardly be purchased even in the largest banks, and, for example, Alfa-Bank does not sell foreign currency at all, Rosbank has a limit on the purchase of foreign currency in the amount of $1,000, and Raiffeisenbank can sell foreign currency. buy only for 100 thousand rubles, Citibank sells foreign currency only to its customers,” Izvestia writes.

And here is the infographic from RBC.

Throughout 2014 and during the panic in the fall and winter, officials did their best to reassure the population, saying that nothing terrible was happening, and there was nothing to worry about at all, the ruble would inevitably begin to strengthen soon. But their words did not help, the ruble continued to fall, and the population panicked. Judge for yourself the accuracy of the forecasts.

Professional analysts also do not know how to accurately predict the ruble exchange rate. So why can neither those who manage the economy nor professional financiers accurately predict the exchange rate of the ruble? To answer this question, just look at the picture below.

What determines the exchange rate of the ruble?

The exchange rate of the ruble is influenced by many factors and events. Conventionally, these factors can be divided into three categories:

• short-term
• medium-term
• long-term

Some factors very quickly affect the exchange rate of the national currency, some slowly and not so noticeably.

Source: presentation by Dmitry Shagardin (MC Energocapital)

Short term factors

These factors affect the ruble at the moment. News, mood (sentiment) of investors, information noise - all this causes short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. Usually they are small - just a few kopecks a day back and forth. It is on such daily fluctuations that speculators play on the stock exchange. But for this you need to constantly monitor the news feeds and react very quickly to the news that appears in them. In addition, you need to understand well what impact this or that news will have on the ruble, as well as how it will be perceived by the majority of market players. In general, only professional players can earn on short-term courses. However, sometimes the panic of the population, sweeping away currency from exchangers, can greatly affect the ruble exchange rate and even bring it down by several percent.

Medium term factors

These factors form mini-trends - directions lasting from several weeks to months. Analyzing these factors, large institutional investors - banks, investment funds, management companies, corporations, and so on - make their decisions. The monetary policy of the Central Bank has a very strong influence on the ruble exchange rate, the Central Bank is a mega-regulator, which is the largest player in the market and has the most powerful leverage. The Central Bank sets interest rates and conducts fiscal policy. For example, last year the Central Bank allowed the ruble to “float freely”, that is, it abandoned foreign exchange interventions, with the help of which it used to keep the ruble exchange rate in the dual-currency corridor. As a result, the ruble began to seek market equilibrium and found it higher. However, this does not mean that the Central Bank has completely left the foreign exchange market, it still sells and buys foreign currency, which affects the exchange rate.

Low economic growth or a falling economy contributes to an increase in capital outflow and causes a depreciation of the ruble. Economic growth, on the contrary, attracts capital to the country, which causes an increase in demand for the national currency and its strengthening.

The trade balance of Russia is positive, that is, the country exports more goods (mainly oil and gas) than it imports. Buying goods abroad (import) increases the demand for the currency, it rises in price and weakens the ruble. When exporting, the currency, on the contrary, enters the country, it becomes abundant, it becomes cheaper, and the ruble strengthens. Thus, a positive trade balance contributes to the strengthening of the ruble.

Long term factors

Purchasing power parity is the ratio of the purchasing power of the currencies of different countries. According to this theory, for the same amount of money, converted at the current exchange rate into national currencies, the same amount of goods can be purchased in different countries of the world. If a unit of a product in Russia costs less than the same product, for example, in the United States, then it will be more profitable to buy goods in Russia. This causes a rise in commodity prices in Russia and a fall in prices in the US, and the ruble should fall according to PPP.

A large amount of foreign debt has a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate, as the state and corporations are forced to buy foreign currency on the market in order to pay off obligations to foreign creditors. It is believed that the payment of a large foreign currency debt by Rosneft in the conditions of a closed market for external borrowing due to sanctions strongly influenced the depreciation of the ruble at the end of 2014.

Ruble exchange rate and oil prices

And of course, oil prices have the most important influence on the ruble exchange rate. Profits from the sale of oil and gas occupy a significant percentage in the structure of the Russian economy - 30% of GDP and 48% of budget revenues. Low oil prices reduce budget revenues, while high oil prices increase it. Since buyers pay for oil in foreign currency, when the price of black gold falls, the ruble exchange rate weakens, which allows the state to compensate for the decrease in income from falling prices. As for the oil prices themselves, they are even more unpredictable than the ruble.

If you look at the graph of oil and the ruble, then the relationship is noticeable to the naked eye - oil is falling, the rate is rising.

If we compare the price charts for oil and the ruble / dollar, then the dependence looks even clearer.

If we build a set of oil/dollar and ruble/dollar points and draw two regression lines (Y1 - linear, Y2 - quadratic), then both lines will have a coefficient of determination equal to 0.97, which means a high dependence between oil prices and the ruble exchange rate.

However, if you take a look at past years and take the time period from 1999 to 2015, then this relationship is no longer so obvious.

In different years, these instruments did not always behave in the same way relative to each other.

The R2 coefficient indicates the presence or absence of a linear relationship between two variables, and the Pearson coefficient is the degree of correlation: positive when the instruments move in one direction, negative when the instruments move in the opposite direction.

In 1999, 2002, 2004 and 2005, the correlation between oil prices and the ruble exchange rate is negative, that is, they moved in different directions. In 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2010 and 2013, there is no relationship between prices at all. In 2001, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2014, on the contrary, the connection is very clearly visible, and the correlation is positive, that is, oil and the ruble moved in the same direction.

Currency crisis 2014-2015

This picture, taken from Dmitry Shagardin's LiveJournal, clearly shows what and how most influenced the ruble exchange rate in 2014-2015. Here is the war in Ukraine, and sanctions, and the closure of external debt markets, which caused a currency shortage, panic among the population, an increase in the key rate, and much more.

Results

The ruble exchange rate depends on dozens of factors that change over time and differ in intensity of impact. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict the ruble exchange rate, especially in the long term. Not a single bank at the beginning of 2014 gave a correct forecast for the ruble exchange rate. The greatest influence on the ruble exchange rate in 2014 was exerted by oil prices, sanctions and an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank. In my opinion, these factors will continue to exert their influence in the near future. High inflation, falling oil prices, recession will contribute to the weakening of the exchange rate. I don’t see any other factors that could reverse the trend and cause demand for the Russian currency, which means that the ruble will remain in the region of 50-60 rubles per dollar in the near future or continue to fall further.

Everyone has heard that the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar is determined by world oil prices. The degree of this dependence is still the subject of heated debate, even among professional economists. Recently, the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance has been increasingly declaring that the ruble exchange rate is “untied” from oil and that the financial system is stabilizing. Is this really so and what does the ruble exchange rate depend on to the greatest extent?

The main sources of foreign exchange in Russia

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Unlike reserve currencies backed by economic potential and high capitalization of the stock markets of the issuing countries, the role of the ruble in the global economy is extremely insignificant. It is not used in international trade and is not included in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks. Relatively high demand is for debt instruments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, but only as one of the components of risky investment.

Some opposition economists claim that it is a branch of foreign structures and is engaged in issuing the ruble for a specific amount of dollar supply. In such reasoning, the cause is confused with the effect. The market price, including foreign currency, is determined by the ratio of supply and demand. Indirectly, this can be judged by the balance of foreign economic activity. Simply put, the greater the excess of exports over imports, the greater the supply of currency on the market and the stronger the ruble should be, and vice versa. The monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance, as well as the migration of capital, for example, the demand for government funds from non-residents, have a serious impact. In the structure of Russian exports, slightly more than 50% is accounted for by mineral resources (of which 98% is oil), i.e. oil makes up exactly half of exports. Many sources publish other data, according to which the share of mineral resources reaches 60%. This is explained by the fact that they do not take into account the so-called. a hidden section containing military and dual-use products.

Theoretically, this follows:

• The ruble against the dollar and the euro should be inversely correlated with the price of oil;
• The degree of this should be maximum in the event of a shortage of currency in the market and minimum in its absence;
• Approaching the correlation to 100% indicates an artificial deficit of the currency and manipulation of the ruble exchange rate;
• The exchange rates of the ruble against currencies that are not related to settlement currencies may have other patterns.

How much does the ruble depend on oil?

To test these conclusions, let's look at the charts of the USDRUB pair and Brent oil for a long period, including historical highs of oil.

It can be seen from them that a pronounced correlation between oil and the ruble/dollar exchange rate was observed for a relatively short period of time: in 2014–2016. At the same time, a sharper drop in oil prices occurred during the 2008-2009 crisis. Then the short-term ruble from 23 to 36.5 per dollar in percentage terms (less than 60%) was less than in 2014–2015 (more than 100%). Something else is even more interesting. In 2011, the ruble strengthened again to 27 per dollar against the backdrop of rising oil to the range of $100-$120 per barrel. Oil remained in this interval until September 2014, but by September 1, 2014, the ruble had already fallen to 37 per dollar, i.e. even lower than with oil at $ 36 in 2008. One could assume that the previous the crisis led to the depletion of foreign exchange reserves, and the ruble exchange rate became impossible to maintain. But it's not.

The resources of the Stabilization Fund, equal to $156.8 billion as of 01.01.2008, were divided between the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund on 01.02.2008. As of September 1, 2014, the funds of these funds amounted to $177 billion. The reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the form of foreign currency as of January 1, 2008 amounted to $466 billion, and as of September 1, 2014 - $406 billion. Thus, even after the crisis years, there was no foreign currency deficit in the country, and the ruble fell 37% amid exceptionally high oil prices. By December 2014, more and more reports began to appear that banks were running out of currency reserves, exchange offices were closing, and long queues were lining up for those still working. It was during this period that an exceptionally high correlation between fluctuations in the price of oil and the exchange rate of the ruble became noticeable, it could be seen in real time, watching the minute charts.

Banks: their own game and risk avoidance

According to information received by Fontanka.ru from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and a number of commercial banks, in 2014 Sberbank earned 182 billion rubles from foreign exchange transactions. profit (before tax), Alfa-Bank 144 billion rubles. In particular, on these operations, Alfa-Bank successfully "scrolled" 57.7 billion rubles allocated in September from the Central Bank to the Baltic Bank. The funds were used for their intended purpose only in December, when the ruble exchange rate was more than 60 per dollar. On December 16, when the rate briefly rose to almost 80, a real battle took place on the Moscow Exchange between commercial banks and the Central Bank, which sold a total of $ 3.3 billion during the currency exchange.

Similar events took place in the winter of 2015–2016. In February 2016, the chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, A. Bastrykin, said that commercial banks were responsible for the collapse of the ruble. According to him, banks speculated in currency as if they knew the future rate in advance, investing almost 100% of the funds available to them in transactions. But, most likely, it was the other way around: the details of the change in the rate were formed by the banks themselves, tracking the quotes of the Brent futures using trading ones. A reasonable question: what external conditions were then and are absent now? Why did banks curtail active foreign exchange transactions? Suffice it to recall that the peaks of the collapse of the ruble, as well as the shortage of currency in exchangers, coincided with the aggravation of the situation in Eastern Ukraine, the expansion of the US and EU sanctions against Russia, and rumors about the imminent disconnection of the Russian banking system from SWIFT. That is, banks insured themselves against political ones.

So what determines the exchange rate of the ruble?

Of course, it cannot be denied that the ruble depends on oil. Being the main export commodity, oil forms foreign exchange reserves and provides a safety margin for the financial system. But since the beginning of 2017, there has been practically no correlation between the USDRUB pair and oil quotes. The current policy of the Ministry of Finance involves active purchases of dollars at oil prices above $40 per barrel. In 2017, the Ministry of Finance spent a little more than $14 billion to replenish foreign exchange reserves, and the monthly schedule of purchases almost exactly repeated the growth in oil prices:

No less active purchases continue at the present time, for which the amount of 19 billion rubles is allocated. in a day. For this reason, the ruble is firmly established above 60 per dollar, although at current oil prices it could be much firmer. By the way, the myth of a hard peg of the ruble to oil has been promoted for several years in a row by one of the leaders of the Carnegie Moscow Center Andrei Movchan. The ICC is an affiliate of the international non-governmental organization Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Oil giants BP and Chevron are among the fund's main sponsors, and Russian economists who justify the ruble's dependence on oil are, for the most part, closely associated with this fund.

According to the calculations of A. Movchan himself, based on data for the period from early 2005 to mid-2017, the correlation coefficient between USD and Brent is -0.52, which, in principle, should be in accordance with the structure of Russia's foreign trade. The linear regression chart popular on the Internet with a correlation of -0.97 is based on data from 01/01/2014 to 03/13/2015, i.e. for the very period when the main volumes of speculation took place on the market. With oil at $75, we get the USDRUB rate equal to 48, which is already very far from reality.

But there is an instrument with which the ruble correlates better than with oil (the last 3 years within 0.9-0.95). This is the South African rand. South Africa is a typical commodity country, although the structure of exports there is completely different: mainly metals and diamonds. The traditionally high key (currently 6.5%) attracts risky investors to carry trade operations. Interest in them especially increases during periods of stability in the markets. In this respect, there is also a similarity with the ruble.

An anomalous fall in the correlation occurred in the 2nd half of 2014 - 1st half of 2015. Obviously, this was due to the specifics of the already mentioned banking crisis in Russia.

Thus, from the analysis of long-term data, it follows that the inverse correlation between the ruble and oil is exaggerated and is most clearly manifested only during periods of stock market panic, when there is a clear shortage of currency. In the rest of the time, a much more important factor is the willingness of investors to work with risky assets, which include both the assets of the BRICS countries (including Russia) and oil. And do not forget to keep in mind the policy of the Ministry of Finance, which is heading for a systematic

The summer vacation season that has come to an end is considered a kind of "marker" for the foreign exchange market. It is known that tourists mostly leave Russia, so vacationers increase the demand for dollars and euros, which should have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate. "Lenta.ru" talked to foreign exchange market analysts to understand how seasonal factors are related to prices for dollars and euros.

Despite their impact on exchange rates, seasonal or cyclical, the causes of fluctuations are more likely to be the so-called second-order factors. They are able to provide temporary support to the ruble, but they are not able to form a serious trend. And, before talking about them, it is worth recalling the primary factors that affect the exchange rate.

Why the ruble depends on oil

The first fundamental factor that affects the exchange rate is the trade balance (the difference between the value of exports from a country and imports into it). So, Russian companies sell oil, gas and other raw materials mainly for dollars and euros, but in Russia they pay taxes and salaries to their employees in rubles.
Since oil and gas make up a significant part of Russian exports and are the source of almost half of the state budget revenues, they are considered the most important factor influencing foreign exchange earnings. Obviously, the amount of foreign exchange earnings depends on the cost of oil. Thus, the low cost of raw materials resulted in a significant devaluation of the ruble at the end of 2008.

In this regard, a reasonable question arises: why did the ruble not strengthen so much in 2012 (at the beginning of the year, the US dollar was trading at a price of 31.2 rubles, and on September 14 it cost 30.65 rubles), although oil held at a record level ? Here it is worth remembering another factor: the outflow of capital. In the first six months of this year, 42.4 billion dollars came from Russia. There are several reasons for this state of affairs, the main of which are a poor investment climate, political instability and corruption (dishonest officials are trying to withdraw money abroad and buy up foreign currency).

The exchange rate of the national currency is also influenced by numerous indicators that speak about the state of the country's economy: productivity data, business activity index, housing construction information, retail sales volumes. The value of money is strongly influenced by speculation, as well as the expectations of companies and the public about the growth or fall of rates. Dmitry Kharlampiev from Petrocommerce Bank recalls that during the crisis period of 2008-2009, the share of individuals' deposits in foreign currency increased from 13.5 percent to 34 percent. Thus, additional domestic demand for foreign currency amounted to about $40 billion, which put pressure on the ruble exchange rate.

The exchange rate of the national currency is also influenced by the policy of the Central Bank. The Central Bank conducts foreign exchange interventions: it sells dollars and euros to support the ruble exchange rate, and buys up foreign currency when it does not want the national money to strengthen excessively. Another tool is the refinancing rate. If the Bank of Russia raises the rate, then the cost of borrowings for commercial financial institutions in the country grows. Consequently, the profitability of funds in Russia is increasing, and investors are sending more money to the Russian economy, and this spurs the demand for rubles. In addition, by raising the refinancing rate, the Central Bank reduces the issue of money, this reduces the supply of the ruble and, as a result, raises its value.

Finally, an increase in the refinancing rate reduces inflation, which is also a factor in the value of a currency. The higher the rise in prices, the faster the national currency becomes cheaper and the more its exchange rate falls. Of course, inflation is affected not only by the Central Bank's refinancing rate. For example, food inflation caused by drought can spur price growth and collapse the ruble exchange rate. Of the general economic factors, unemployment and GDP can also be distinguished: a decrease in the first and an increase in the second raises the exchange rate of the national currency.

Obviously, most of these factors are not able to instantly affect the change in the exchange rate. So, for example, the increase in the supply of the ruble after the reduction of the Central Bank rate will be gradual, and therefore its exchange rate should fall slowly. However, international investors, traders and many market participants who know that they will need foreign currency after some time (and it is better to buy it at a lower price), "win back" economic news immediately. For example, on September 14, after news from the United States about keeping the discount rate at a minimum and new injections into the economy, the dollar against the ruble immediately forty kopecks.

Second order factors

The above factors are considered the main ones. In turn, the reasons that can be called seasonal or cyclical are considered by most analysts to be secondary. In their opinion, they can fluctuate the exchange rate for some time, but seasonal factors are not capable of forming a certain trend, in contrast to the same reduction in the refinancing rate. Experts interviewed by Lentoy.ru estimate the change in the ruble exchange rate under the influence of cyclical factors at 0.5-1.5 percent, but no more.

One of these factors is the New Year holidays, when citizens start buying more goods supplied by importers, which sharply raises the demand for the currency and weakens the ruble. However, according to Anton Startsev, a leading analyst at IF OLMA, it is impossible to speak of a statistically significant confirmation of this trend. He cites the following statistics: for the period from 2002 to 2011 inclusive, the depreciation of the ruble against the US dollar in December was recorded in six cases out of ten. The average weakening was 1.2 percent. Startsev notes that if the crisis year of 2008 is excluded from the statistics (then there was a large-scale devaluation of the ruble), then it will look even less convincing.

In addition, by the end of the year, the ruble exchange rate is negatively affected by the fact that it is in the fourth quarter that a significant part of the budget is being used. Spending from the state treasury dramatically increases the amount of ruble liquidity in the economy. Dmitry Glubokovsky, an analyst at Aton Management, notes that some of these funds are used in the interests of individual businessmen (in other words, we are talking about corruption), who then withdraw money abroad. This, in turn, spurs the demand for foreign currency and puts a lot of pressure on the ruble.

However, at the end of the year, another seasonal factor has an impact - the end of the reporting period and the payment of taxes by Russian companies. This increases the demand for ruble liquidity, which has a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate. According to Startsev, this trend is noticeable at the end of each month, but to a greater extent - at the end of the quarter.

"On the whole, only the tax period is the most predictable and regular event, which makes it possible to unequivocally assess the likelihood of a possible strengthening of the ruble," notes Alexei Egorov, an analyst at Nomos-bank. He names another factor: the period of payment of dividends by Russian companies. Since a number of their owners are not residents, they convert the received money into foreign currency, which temporarily lowers the ruble exchange rate.

In addition, the demand for foreign currency is spurred by payments on foreign debts. According to Andrey Vernikov, deputy general director for investment analysis at Zerich Capital Management, in recent years, the peak of these payments falls on September and March - therefore, the demand for foreign currency is high during this period. He notes that a liquidity shortage usually forms by the middle of the year, which also spurs demand for foreign currency.

As for the vacation period and the possible pressure on the ruble associated with it, analysts do not consider it to be a significant reason. Firstly, this period is too spread out: the holiday season starts in May and lasts until September, and besides, many people go abroad both in autumn and in winter. Secondly, within the framework of the Russian economy as a whole, spending by tourists is not very significant. But experts agree that, in general, the trade balance (and hence the exchange rate of the ruble), any sector of the economy in which Russia is a net importer, including tourism, is negatively affected.

Thus, other things being equal, we can say that the national currency can grow at the end of each month, and especially strongly at the end of the quarter. We should expect that it will fall in price before the New Year holidays, as well as on the news about the payment of dividends. However, due to the large number of mutually influencing and mutually intersecting factors, "ideal conditions" should not be expected.