It makes no sense for a potential mortgage borrower to postpone getting a loan for several months today. It is unlikely that interest rates will fall significantly in 2014.
In the coming year, some banks may violate the rules, according to which borrowers must repay no more than half of their income on a loan every month.
Matter is primary
The majority of players in the domestic mortgage market surveyed by BN called the outpacing growth in demand for new buildings the main trend of the past year.
In particular, according to Tatyana Pavlova, Head of the Retail Business Development Department at Interkommerts Bank, this trend is explained by the equalization of interest rates on such loans with secondary market rates. Simply put, lenders are increasingly removing the margin for the investment period (the time before the transfer of the finished apartment as collateral to the bank) in their products. “The banks with the participation of state capital (Sberbank, VTB24) were the first to lower rates, and thus forced all other mortgage players to follow their example,” the specialist recalls.
And according to Mikhail Gavrilov, director of the Northern branch network of the Alexander Nedvizhimost agency, the popularity of primary mortgages has reached such proportions that it even had a negative impact on other segments of the real estate market. “The growth in lending to primary firms has hit residential rentals, reducing the income of agencies specializing in hiring,” he said.
Naturally, such a pronounced process cannot quickly come to naught. Accordingly, it should be expected that in the coming year the growth of the mortgage market will also occur mainly due to lending for the purchase of housing in the primary market.
In general, in 2013, the total volume of mortgage loans issued across the country increased by almost 30% compared to 2012, to 1.3 trillion rubles. But more moderate growth is expected in 2014. According to the forecast of the head of the AHML Analytical Center Mikhail Goldberg, it will be about 15%.
Class struggle
The next trend that has passed into the new year is the growing popularity of mortgage lending when purchasing objects of relatively expensive classes of housing.
To clarify, today in a number of regions, with the attraction of housing loans, up to 50% of apartments in the segment of new economy class buildings are bought. But in parallel, the number of mortgage transactions in other segments grew throughout the past year. “We are seeing an unprecedented surge of interest in mortgages for elite properties,” Andrey Ostanin, director of investment attraction at the RBI holding, told BN in June.
Obtaining a loan for the purchase of an object worth tens of millions of rubles has ceased to be a rarity. “In 2013, our largest mortgage deal in St. Petersburg was a loan in the amount of 40 million rubles for the purchase of housing in a house under construction,” said Arkady Bocharnikov, director of partner relations at the North-West Bank of Sberbank of Russia.
“The largest loan in the amount of 50 million rubles. last year, we gave it to a client for the purchase of a country house with a plot in the Kurortny district,” says Alexander Konyshkov, Director of the North-West Regional Center of ZAO Raiffeisenbank.
“The client purchased a five-room apartment in the city center, on Shpalernaya Street,” says Ilya Zlunitsyn, regional director of the North-West Directorate of Rosbank. – The cost of an apartment of about 250 sq. m was 32 million rubles. The loan amounted to 15 million rubles.
Recall that in the course of a similar survey following the results of 2012, the majority of bankers called more modest figures.
The growth in the number of mortgage transactions in the business and elite class segments will also continue in the coming year. This, among other things, will be facilitated by the increasing liberalization of the conditions for issuing loans, to which bankers are being pushed by growing competition.
Field for maneuver
“The share of state-owned banks in the mortgage market is about 80%, so the rest of the banks have to work in a highly competitive environment in order to maintain the volume of mortgage loans and not give in on the proposed conditions,” explains Tatyana Pavlova. Real estate markets of "comfort" and "elite" classes remain areas where, due to special conditions, breakthroughs of second-tier players are possible.
Let's make a reservation: most of the leading players have already launched lending programs with a high down payment and a reduced package of documents confirming income. “A loan “according to two documents” is not new, and most banks have it in the lineup,” states Tatyana Pavlova. Recall that these products are popular among Russians with high incomes.
Next in line is a revision of the approach to DTI. Debt to income is the ratio of debt to income. And today, most banks adhere to the rule that, as part of a loan, the debtor can monthly pay no more than 45-50% of monthly earnings. Otherwise, the borrower's risk of default allegedly increases excessively. But, notes the head of the mortgage lending department of the VTB24 Mortgage Lending Center, Tatiana Khobotova, if a certain citizen earns much more than is necessary to meet daily needs, he could well pay 70% of income monthly.
That is, in the coming year, we can expect the official appearance of mortgage products with a "high" DTI. And, of course, Russians with large salaries are not interested in economy-class housing.
In addition, it is quite possible that, following VTB24, a number of players will launch programs with additional discounts on loans over 5 million rubles. That will also contribute to the growing popularity of acquiring relatively expensive real estate in a mortgage.
big brothers
Also, the development of banking technologies leads to the simplification of requirements for the package of documents requested from the borrower. Various computer programs are more and more likely to predict the future behavior of a potential borrower by parameters that are reflected not in documents, but in a questionnaire or other sources of information. Accordingly, there is no need for checks on a pile of certificates.
For example, in late 2013, the National Credit Bureau and FICO, a borrower assessment software company, developed a new software product that predicts a borrower's default based on the behavior of people in his immediate environment. Including taking into account the behavior of acquaintances from social networks. Simply put, if there are many debtors among the acquaintances of a potential borrower, a loan may not be given.
“Our database of credit histories contains records of 62 million borrowers,” Alexey Volkov, Marketing Director of the NBKI, explained to BN the principles of the program. – Each borrower has phone numbers, addresses, credit accounts and other characteristics. When such parameters are the same for two borrowers, we are talking about a connection between them. For example, if two borrowers have the same home phone number, it can be assumed that they are relatives.”
It is not difficult to guess that the improvement of evaluation models will continue in the coming year.
However, the technological revolution concerns not only methods for checking future borrowers. Last year, Sberbank moved cooperation with counterparties online. In particular, this allows employees of real estate agencies and developers to track the process of passing a loan application in real time. “If an application is considered for seven days, it literally lights up in red on the monitor of a banking specialist,” says Marina Chubrina, Deputy Chairman of the North-Western Bank of Sberbank of Russia.
It is logical to expect that 2014 will be the year of transition to online mode for all Russian players in the housing lending market. That is, the time for consideration of applications will be reduced even more.
state business
One of the significant trends of the coming year will be the continued strengthening of the role of various state institutions in the mortgage market. First of all, control will be tightened. For example, two bills devoted to consumer lending are waiting for the third reading, which strictly regulate the rules for drawing up loan agreements, including mortgage ones.
For its part, promises to intensify the work of AHML.
To clarify, in November, the Agency went on a radical review of its principles of work in the mortgage market. In particular, it removed the previously mandatory requirement for borrowers to confirm their income with a certificate in the form of 2NDFL.
Now AHML is developing new options aimed at stimulating sales. For example, it is preparing to launch a new version of the "Moving" program. According to Maria Polyakova, director of the AHML Innovation, Methodology and Standardization Department, the product is expected to be launched in the first quarter of 2014. Recall, "Moving" is a loan for the purchase of new housing secured by existing real estate. At the same time, the borrower is given a delay of up to two years for the sale of old housing. The product was also developed for intercity moving.
Of the other players in the Russian mortgage market, only DeltaCredit bank tried to adopt the experience of AHML. The DeltaMoving product was launched on September 30 last year.
In general, among the plans of AHML for 2014, the following can be considered the most significant for the real estate market. The agency intends to introduce a unified system of housing subsidies in the country, including in the social mortgage segment. “In social products, the agency is working on the issue of unifying the conditions for granting subsidies for various categories of borrowers,” says Maria Polyakova. According to her, today each category of borrowers receives different forms of support: in different volumes and on different conditions. The single form provides for a larger subsidy, but subsequently the recipient will be obliged to reimburse the costs.
Place your bets
Finally, a few words must be said about interest rates. Current forecasts for potential borrowers are favorable. Rates will either remain at today's level or fall further.
“Reduction of rates in 2014 will occur only at the expense of social products such as Young Teachers, Young Scientists and the like,” believes Galina Afanasenko, Director General of the Baltic Mortgage Corporation. Mikhail Goldberg also predicts a slight, by 0.1-0.2 percentage points, reduction in rates.
However, BN suggests treating the current forecasts with caution. At the beginning of last year, experts unanimously argued that rates would rise all twelve months. The ceiling was called in 13.5%. But since March, having reached the level of 12.9%, the weighted average rates have gone down.
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The state of the mortgage real estate market depends on the economic situation in the state. Against the backdrop of recent events in the country, it is interesting to follow the trend in mortgage rates from the moment the credit real estate market was formed to the present.
In Russia, the development of the mortgage market began relatively recently: in 1997, the Agency for Mortgage Lending was established, and the following year, the main document in this area, the Law on Mortgage, was adopted. During the first year of operation, only 150 mortgage certificates were issued. They were issued under the following conditions: the amount is in foreign currency, and the rate is 10% per annum.
Until the mid-2000s, the development of the mortgage market was slow. The terms of the loan were such that only very wealthy people could take advantage of such an offer. The maximum mortgage rate was set in 1999 - 35% per annum with a loan term of only 5 years. But already in 2000, the rate decreased by 5%, and the repayment period was extended to 10 years. Loans were issued only in US dollars. Interestingly, for a whole year of work in one mortgage agency, only 17 transactions were made.
A real boom in the development of the mortgage market began in 2005, when a new version of the Housing Code was adopted. This was also facilitated by a reduction in the refinancing rate and inflation. Real market competition has begun. In pursuit of each client, interest rates on loans began to decline. At the beginning of 2006, the weighted average rate in rubles was 14.9%, and in foreign currency - 11.8%. The total volume of lending in dollars and rubles was approximately the same. In total, in 2005 mortgage loans were provided for 56 billion rubles.
A systematic reduction in interest rates on loans was observed for several years, until the summer of 2008. By this time, the rates were 12.4% and 10.9% per annum in rubles and foreign currency, respectively. The crisis of 2008 slowed down the development of the mortgage market. In those years, many financial structures that did not have access to long-term lending ceased their activities or curtailed mortgage projects. This led to an increase in interest rates on loans. The increase peaked in May 2009: 14.9% in rubles and 13.8% in foreign currency. In 2009, a record low number of mortgage transactions was made.
Gradually, the crisis receded, and in December 2011 the rate in foreign currency was already 9.8%, and in rubles - 11.4% per annum. These figures have been the lowest in recent years. After that time, there is only an increase in mortgage rates. Thus, at the end of 2014, the weighted average rate in the country was 12.7% per annum.
The turning point came on December 16, 2014, when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to raise the key rate to 17%. This led to an immediate increase in the mortgage rate to 17-20%.
Such lending conditions, of course, cannot but slow down the development of mortgages. Buying real estate is becoming almost impossible. At the moment, the government is developing a number of measures to overcome the crisis in the real estate market. For example, it was decided to allocate 20 billion rubles to provide interest rates to banks. This will allow credit institutions to issue mortgages to the population for the purchase of housing in new buildings at 13% per annum. Thus, the authorities expect to support developers.
However, these preferential conditions will not be available to everyone. The government spoke in favor of the fact that at 13% it is possible to issue loans only for the purchase of a single economy-class housing or for increasing living space in connection with the birth of two or more children.
It is very difficult to predict what will happen to mortgages in 2015. Most likely, the key rate will continue to decrease (at the moment its value has already been reduced from 17 to 15%). This fact will have to be reflected in lowering interest rates on loans. But significant improvements will require stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in the country, and this is possible only with an increase in oil prices, the lifting of sanctions and the strengthening of the Russian ruble.
Sberbank today is the largest bank - the leader in Russia. This becomes a decisive criterion when choosing a bank and a mortgage program, despite the wide range of requirements put forward to the borrower. Will the situation change in 2014 and what interest rates will Sberbank set?
The current situation in the real estate market
In 2013, the real estate market experienced significant changes - the demand for residential buildings rose and fell due to the unstable economic situation associated with the crisis in the government. The coming year shows other indicators: houses are being built, demand is consistently high, prices do not exceed the prescribed norm.
Now it is quite profitable to buy housing - for the price that was set in 2013, today you can not only get an apartment in a new building, but also receive additional services as a bonus.
However, experts suggest that real estate prices may soon rise due to the introduction of a property tax.
The cost is expected to increase by 5-7%. While the situation on the market is more or less stable, it is recommended to buy real estate now, without waiting for the rise in price.
As for the method of payment, the first place, as in 2013, is cash. Acquires about 37% buyers. Changes are possible only after the dynamics in banks, which can increase the interest rate, losing some customers, or less, changing the market situation by 1-2%.
How will interest on mortgages at Sberbank change in 2014?
Sberbank today offers mortgage lending at an interest rate of 12% per annum. Since 2013, this indicator has been reduced (from 13%) and no major change is planned in the near future.
But experts believe otherwise - due to the rapidly growing demand for real estate, Sberbank will increase the interest rate by at least 0.5%.
Representatives of the bank are silent about the dynamics. As long as the market situation is stable, there are no plans to change interest rates.
Why is the number of applicants for a mortgage decreasing?
More and more property buyers are trying to pay in cash. The reason for this is obvious - a large overpayment.
For example, if you take a mortgage for 20 years on housing worth 1.5 million rubles, you will have to pay a triple amount to the bank.
That is, at the end of the loan period, the total amount of payments will be 4 million rubles. For this amount, you can buy several apartments or one with good conditions.
In a mortgage, borrowers are not happy with the need to register real estate as collateral. Even if 90% is paid for the mortgage, but there is no way to pay the balance, the apartment will become the property of the bank.
In fact, for the duration of the loan, the borrower risks his real estate, having an unstable financial situation. Of course, insurance guarantees payments, but only partial.
With an increase in demand for real estate, banks change interest rates, and not less. This is the main reason for the refusal of buyers from mortgages in the past and coming year.
Factors that determine the size of the interest rate
- inflation rate. Banks must take into account the level of inflation in the country before setting the interest rate. So the company avoids the possible risks associated with the depreciation of money.
- Loan terms. The longer the loan term, the higher the interest rate. The benefit of the bank is obvious - if the borrower refuses to pay after a few years, the company will not only return its money, but also receive a good income. Therefore, an increase in the interest rate should be expected with an extension of the loan term.
- Loan amount. The larger the amount, the lower the percentage. For this reason, mortgages have rates much lower than consumer loans.
- Pledge. Another reason for low mortgage rates is collateral. The bank does not risk anything - in case of non-payment, the apartment becomes the property of the company. Funds already deposited will not be returned to the borrower.
- The financial condition of the borrower. If the borrower is not credible, the bank has the right to set a higher interest rate. For this reason, it is recommended to bring as many documents as possible confirming solvency.
- Bank cooperation. If the client has a growing deposit in the bank or makes regular deposits, then the mortgage interest rate will be reduced. The company may offer to freeze the account until the loan expires. When the last payment is made, the accounts are unfrozen.
- Property condition. Buying a primary home can be cheaper by lowering the interest rate. In this case, the bank will not cooperate with a client who wants to buy a dilapidated apartment. If the loan is approved, then the interest rate will change upwards.
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Basic mortgage programs
- Acquisition of finished housing. This type of lending is provided for the purchase of any real estate in the secondary market.
- Acquisition of housing under construction. Provided for the purchase of an apartment in the primary market in a house still under construction.
- Construction of a residential building. Loans for building your own home.
- Country estate. Mortgage for the purchase of real estate or land in a foreign country.
What is the difference between the mortgage programs of Sberbank?
Sberbank started issuing mortgage loans as one of the first banks. The crisis and unstable situation in the country did not affect the work of the company. Loans continue to be issued to this day, while interest rates are quite loyal, although not the lowest.
The main difference between the mortgage programs of Sberbank is the possibility of selecting a loan depending on the type of housing being purchased. This allows you to calculate the interest rate individually, without overpaying for unknown services.
The maximum loan term and the minimum down payment are another difference between Sberbank's mortgage programs.
But for this, the company puts forward a number of requirements for the borrower, the inconsistency of which leads to a refusal to lend. For this reason, many try, but only a few buy real estate with Sberbank.
To obtain a mortgage, the borrower not only leaves the property as collateral, but is also required to bring a spouse for surety. At the same time, the income of both family members is checked very carefully.
The difference between mortgage programs and Sberbank is the provision of a choice between payment methods. These can be equal payments or decreasing every month.
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Is the rate cut in 2014 realistic?
With the onset of 2014, interest rates on mortgages at Sberbank remained virtually unchanged. A downward trend is expected closer to the summer, but it is not yet possible to make forecasts.
The stable high position in the real estate market, the growing demand for loans and the increase in the cost of apartments indicate the absence of dynamics in reducing the interest rate.
The reduction of rates is planned to be carried out only in the Young Family program. But this remains speculation for now.
Expert opinion
Experts believe that Sberbank is pursuing a policy that is beneficial for borrowers. The gradual decrease in interest rates contributes to an increase in the number of customers wishing to take out a mortgage.
This was not even affected by the crisis at the beginning of 2014. You can get a mortgage loan for n days on very favorable terms.
Video: Mortgage from Sberbank
According to experts, lending at Sberbank is carried out on the most favorable terms. Despite the existing lower interest rates, it is safe to cooperate with Sberbank.
And if the bank has a deposit, then the mortgage is even more profitable.
Also, there are advantages for those clients who previously cooperated with Sberbank and repaid the loan without delay.
Sberbank is the largest bank in Russia. It is very profitable to issue a mortgage loan in it - low interest rate, loyal conditions, ease of payment. And if you decide to buy real estate, then you should do it in the coming year.
The Russians are accustomed to solve their housing problem with the help of borrowed funds. This is shown by the latest statistics published by the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML). So, last year more than a million mortgage loans were issued for a total amount of 1.76 trillion. rubles. This is 1.23 times higher than the level of 2013 in quantitative terms and 1.3 times in monetary terms.
Slowdown towards the end of the year
Nevertheless, as analysts note, monthly issuance growth rates have been declining throughout the year - from 52% in January to 13% in November. At the same time, in December the demand for mortgage loans and housing was warmed up as a result of the devaluation of the ruble and the decision of the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate to 17%.
“Under such conditions, potential borrowers who had a loan approval in their hands hurried to take advantage of the opportunity to receive a loan at the approved rates,” the AHML final report says. - The main reasons for the slowdown in the mortgage market were the growth of mortgage rates and the tightening of requirements for borrowers by banks. On the other hand, the demand for mortgages in 2014 was supported by the investment activity of the population due to the devaluation of the ruble and expectations of future growth in apartment prices.”
For comparison, if in general for the year the average rate for issuing mortgage loans was 12.5%, then in December it rose to 13.2%. As explained in AHML, there are no statistics for January yet. Nevertheless, a cursory analysis of bank offers indicates an increase in average rates to the level of 19-20% per annum.
“At the end of 2014, most of the participants revised the main conditions for issuing mortgage loans: they increased the minimum down payment, canceled the possibility of obtaining a loan on two documents or with a free-form income certificate,” the AHML report says. - A number of participants suspended the issuance of mortgage loans in December or set prohibitive rates of 30% or more. In January 2015, the minimum rates for mortgage programs have already increased to 14.5 - 16% (with the exception of certain joint actions with developers for the purchase of housing in specific residential complexes). These actions, combined with the growth of interest rates on loans, lead to a cooling of the market, but how strong the effect on the mortgage market will be in 2015 depends, first of all, on the duration of the period of increased volatility in the financial markets, including the interbank lending and lending markets. secured by assets.
At the same time, according to analysts, the program to subsidize the interest rate on mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction or housing in a new building will support both the mortgage market and the housing construction industry. This measure should take effect around April, the Ministry of Construction reported about this the other day.
High quality portfolio
In 2014, banks actively competed with each other for mortgage borrowers. This first led to lower requirements for potential clients. However, despite this, the quality of the mortgage portfolio remains at a high level. For example, the share of mortgage loans with a payment delay of more than 90 days is only 2.1%, and the total volume of mortgage loans without a single overdue payment is 95.5%.
“At the same time, such stability was largely ensured by the high growth rates of the mortgage portfolio,” AHML notes. - In absolute terms, problem loans (overdue by more than 90 days) grew by 38.8% in 2014, to almost 75 billion rubles. Already at the beginning of 2015, along with a probable reduction in the issuance of mortgage loans, there may be an upward trend not only in the volume, but also in the share of overdue mortgage debt.”
At the same time, the share of transactions with mortgages also rose to another record level. According to Rosreestr, 26.7% of all property rights registered in housing transactions in 2014 were acquired using a mortgage loan. In general, the housing market grew by 10% at the end of the year, and this was largely due to the December demand.
Rising house prices and the role of mortgages
Housing prices rose by an average of 5.9% per year. This is half the official inflation (11.4%), but in any case, the increase in the cost of square meters has kept the demand from those who buy property for investment purposes.
“The steady growth in the issuance of mortgage loans over the past five years has led to an increase in the volume of new housing construction,” the AHML notes. - Commissioning of housing in 2014 amounted to 1.084 million apartments with a total area of 81.6 million square meters, which was an absolute record for the commissioning of housing in the entire history of observations in Russia (including the RSFSR as part of the USSR). Given that at least 40-50% of housing transactions in the primary market were made with the help of mortgages, its development is becoming one of the determining factors for the housing construction sector and makes a significant contribution to GDP growth. Under these conditions, the slowdown in mortgage market growth may now have a much more tangible impact on the economy compared to the situation in 2008-2009.
In general, in 2014, mortgages were the most prosperous segment of household lending and the main driver of its growth. Thus, the volume of consumer (non-mortgage) loans issued in 2014 decreased by 7.6% compared to the previous year, while the volume of mortgage loans increased by 30%. The share of mortgage loans in the total volume of lending to individuals in 2014 increased by 5 p.p. (compared to 2013) and reached a record 20.4%.
You can see the table for the article.
Today we can say that the real estate market has calmed down. From the point of view of buyers, it has stabilized, and there is an opportunity not to chase prices. The growth in the cost of square meters over the past year amounted to about half of the planned inflation rates.
That is, not an increase in prices was actually observed, but a natural depreciation of the ruble. Against this background, last year there was an increase in demand for mortgage loans. The number of applications is not decreasing even today. Citizens are trying to protect their savings from inflation and turning to banks more and more boldly. What to expect from the market, and at the same level?
Bank plans for the new year
The banking system is expected to respond to the growing demand by raising interest rates. Already, many banks are declaring the need to tighten requirements for borrowers. In fact, no significant changes are expected in the conditions for issuing loans. Such information releases in the media are some kind of artillery preparation before raising interest rates.
A similar policy is preached by the leader of mortgage lending - Sberbank. The minimum rate on the bank's website has not yet changed, but no one except the borrower knows what indicators are included in loan agreements. The growing demand for mortgages, coupled with the systemic cleansing of the banking system, plays into the hands of market leaders. Looking at Sberbank, mortgage rates are not going to be reduced at VTB24, DeltaCredit and other banks.
How to get a loan at a rate lower than banks offer?
You can reduce the loan rate with the help of state support, which is implemented through AHML. The essence of most programs is that if a mortgage is issued, the interest rate is reduced due to subsidies from the budget. Today you can get:
- young teachers (8.5%);
- young scientists (10-10.5%);
- recipients of maternity capital (7.65-12.5%).
The military support program involves not only the rate, reduced to 9.5% per annum. Under the program, most of the cost of housing is allocated to military personnel by the state. The maximum loan amount was also increased from 2 to 2.2 million rubles and the down payment was reduced from 30 to 20 percent.
You can also reduce your mortgage interest rate indirectly. An indirect reduction in the debt burden is carried out by filing an application for a tax deduction. Unlike previous years, both spouses can apply, which in total makes it possible to receive up to 260 thousand rubles in compensation.
Should You Take Mortgages?
The decision to lend to improve living conditions is rather not a matter of market factors. The average cost per square meter in the city, real inflation, mortgage rates in 2014 will not be decisive for borrowers. It is much more important that a potential borrower has a stable income and a real need to take out a loan to buy a home. Let's not talk about people who buy apartments in new buildings for subsequent resale or rental. This is already a business area.
But families who do not have to rely on benefits, but need an apartment, should proceed from their income. A real assessment of the possibilities is necessary not so much to convince the bank's loan officers, but more for your own peace of mind. First of all, it is important not to get yourself into trouble, as the amount of the monthly payment should be less than half of the total family income. If you have money for a down payment and a person is confident in the stability of his income, then now is the time to apply for a loan!