The country's budget for the year. Analysis of income and expenses of the budget of the Russian Federation

General assessment and features of the Federal budget for 2017-2019.
The results of the country’s socio-economic development in 2016 clearly require a serious rethinking of the state’s fiscal policy. This is especially important for developing a state budget for a three-year period, since maintaining the previous inertial monetary and financial policy for such a period is extremely dangerous. In this situation, it is important to find economic and regulatory incentives that can accelerate the growth of the domestic economy and bring it to positive development guidelines.

The government, within the framework of the draft budget, sets two interrelated tasks of state economic policy: - to ensure balanced development of the country and expansion of the potential of the domestic economy in difficult conditions of increased uncertainty in the face of changes in the external environment; - to ensure macroeconomic balance, characterized by low dependence on foreign economic conditions, stability and predictability of internal economic indicators, including persistently low inflation and low long-term interest rates, as well as stable tax conditions.

Under what conditions will these problems be solved? Which of them is being implemented as a priority within the framework of the draft budget?

To answer these questions, it is necessary to consider that:

Firstly, in the medium term - 2017-2019, the economy of the Russian Federation will operate in a continuing unfavorable geopolitical situation - anti-Russian sanctions and other measures to isolate Russia, low growth rates of world trade, etc.

Secondly, budget policy contains not only social, but also foreign policy and structural priorities that must be financed at all costs.

Thirdly, the main task of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is declared to be keeping the federal budget deficit at a low level. It is planned to implement a fiscal consolidation program with a target trajectory of the federal budget deficit at the level of 3, 2 and 1% of GDP in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively.

The implementation of such an installation is possible due to: - increasing budget revenues at all levels, primarily the federal one; - cuts in federal budget expenditures; - increasing budget revenues of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities and simultaneously reducing federal budget expenditures.

Considering the difficulties in filling the federal budget due to the unfavorable geopolitical situation and the crisis situation in the domestic economy, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation chose the second option, without abandoning its traditional use of filling the federal budget by redistributing part of the budget revenues of lower levels in its favor.

Thus, ensuring the dynamic socio-economic development of the country, although declared as a priority, is not adequately provided financially.

Federal budget revenues for 2017 and for the planning period 2018 and 2019.
An analysis of materials related to the revenues of the federal budget of the Russian Federation shows that in 2017, while maintaining the budgetary tradition of recent years in general, a number of changes are planned to tighten tax pressure in the excise tax system: an increase in the excise tax on fortified wines from 9 to 18 rubles. , the introduction of a tax on “electronic” cigarettes, an increase in excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel. It is also proposed to introduce a tax on unregistered real estate, increase the amount of penalties for late payment of various taxes, fees and contributions to the federal and local budgets, and optimize federal benefits for regional taxes. It is also planned to specifically consider the influence of the oil factor. However, if at the beginning of 2017 oil continues to rise and reaches levels of $70-80 per barrel, which is quite likely, it will be difficult for the government and deputies to explain the strengthening of fiscal measures against the backdrop of such pronounced economic positivity. This means that if by March next year the amendments to the tax legislation are still not adopted by the deputies, we can safely say that they will either be completely “forgotten” or will be limited to half-measures - a “weak shadow” of the changes currently being prepared.

The most large-scale macroeconomic innovation in the field of taxation is a change in the procedure for accounting for losses when calculating taxable profit for corporate income tax - limiting the loss accepted for deduction to thirty percent of taxable profit.

In general, the structure of federal budget revenues in 2017-2019. indicates a steady decline in the share of income in GDP, which weakens the role of the state in the country’s economy.

An increase in VAT revenues in 2017 compared to the forecast for the final values of the current year by 4.8 percentage points. turns out to be higher than the rate of inflation and GDP growth - in fact, the tax base of this tax. At the same time, investment growth and export volumes are expected to increase. Both of these elements lead to a relative reduction in tax revenues - due to the presence of offsets and refunds of “input” VAT.

The forecast of VAT revenues on imports is based on changes in the exchange rate. Import tax revenues should increase by 12% - with a projected 11% depreciation of the ruble. In the next two years, import tax revenues are planned to increase by 6% and 8%, respectively, in fact, in line with the growth of imports taking into account the exchange rate.

Corporate income tax revenues are generally planned in accordance with the trend established in previous years, taking into account changes in the procedure for crediting income.

The process of replacing export customs duties on crude oil with mineral extraction tax payments poses a significant threat to the domestic economy. This is due to the fact that the mineral extraction tax is directly included in the costs of goods produced from oil and sold on the domestic market. Shifting the burden of taxation on oil producing companies - they are also, as a rule, oil refining companies - within vertically integrated structures has a significant inflationary potential.

It is necessary to make a serious comment on the size of a very important indicator, namely the wage fund, which is of decisive importance in determining the income of the country's budget system, including for the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Indeed, the wage fund in 2016 amounts to 19,565 billion rubles, while, according to Rosstat, wages already in 2015 - including hidden ones - amounted to 37,820.4 billion rubles, and without unobservable income - in the amount of 10,546 billion rubles, - 27274.4 billion rubles. This means that the budget system as a whole will not receive a significant portion of financial revenues within the framework of income taxation.

It should also be borne in mind that an increase in the tax burden on business will ultimately negatively affect the socio-economic situation of the country's population, since almost all taxes transferred - VAT, excise taxes, social contributions, etc., affect the final price of goods consumed by citizens Russia.

Analyzing the section “Federal budget revenues for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019” as a whole, we can conclude that the share of federal budget revenues in 2017-2019. in relation to GDP decreases by 1.1 percentage points - from 16.1% in 2016 to 15% in 2019, which indicates the imperfection of the country’s tax system, which does not cover the so-called “shadow” economy and does not ensures that the actual revenue potential is included in the revenues of the federal and regional budgets. And these are missed opportunities that could make the Consolidated Budget of the Russian Federation surplus.

Assessment of the conformity of the structure of expenditures of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2017-2019. economic development objectives
The nature of the state's economic policy and the adopted priorities are most reflected in the structure of federal budget expenditures.

When forming the draft federal budget for 2017-2019. the priority task was to reduce its scarcity. However, the measures taken to achieve this seem controversial.

The reduction in real expenditures under the national economy item raises serious objections, which could amount to about 15-20%, i.e. there will be a significant reduction in funding. Meanwhile, the main task of the coming period is to return the Russian economy to the proper dynamism of development and ensure not only a way out of recession, but also, which is extremely necessary, out of stagnation.

In six more sections of the Federal budget, we are seeing a pronounced reduction in spending even in nominal terms. At the same time, attention is drawn to the significant reduction in defense spending, which provides savings of more than 1 trillion rubles. in each year of the planning period. Apparently, only in this way was it possible to secure financing for particularly pressing needs. One can only hope that the government will not allow the country’s defense capability to decline.

The strong reduction in nominal expenses causes bewilderment and objection, but in real terms it will be huge - in four sections, which occupy a literally minuscule share of all expenses, but are very important - housing and communal services, culture, sports and the media.

We are also observing an extremely controversial decline in healthcare costs - a decline of 22% in nominal terms, and almost half in real terms, which is of particular concern.

It is noteworthy that almost all federal budget expenditures on the development of social sectors, which have been subject to severe cuts, are included in the list of 11 top-priority national projects, which, according to the country’s leaders and ministers of the economic bloc of the government, require priority financing. The draft budget allocates only 150 billion rubles for their financing. out of 16 trillion rubles. all budget expenses! This is the same amount as is allocated for additional capitalization of VEB.

There is obviously only one possible way out of this situation - an increase in all federal budget expenditures by at least 2-2.5 trillion rubles. in year. Only with such volumes of federal budget expenditures can a reasonable expenditure structure be formed. Of course, this will lead to an increase in the budget deficit. It seems entirely acceptable that: - in 2017, the federal budget deficit was not 3.2%, as provided for in the draft budget, but 5-6%; - in 2018, not 2.2%, but 4-5%; - in 2019, not 1.2%, but 3-4% of GDP.

It is finally necessary to decide what is more important for the country, for the people - a low budget deficit or the level and comfort of people's lives. This is a fundamental issue of our domestic economic policy.

Expenses for the implementation of social programs to support the population
The principle of compliance with previously accepted social obligations stated in social programs only means a course towards stagnation, not development. In the current conditions of post-crisis economic recovery, the main task of social policy should be different - to promote economic recovery in the country.

A program to combat poverty is impossible without increasing the price of labor, because workers, according to Rosstat, make up 2/3 of the poor in the country. However, in 2017, the minimum wage, according to the project, increases by only 300 rubles. - from 7500 to 7800 rub. per month, unemployment benefits are still 850-4900 rubles. per month with a living wage of 11,219 rubles for an able-bodied person. and an average salary of 38,484 rubles. - forecast for 2017. Real wages over the past three years have fallen by 7.6%, in the future 2017-2019. it will grow by 2.4%, but this will not even compensate for previous losses. We believe that for the development of our economy, first of all, we need a new course in state regulation of wages, a transition for the economically active population from the standard of living wage, as a social security mechanism, to the standard of material wealth in the life of a worker and his family.

It is also necessary to abolish the personal income tax in the amount of the minimum wage, which is already below the subsistence level - 69%. This measure will affect 5 million workers. Then we should continue to increase personal income tax benefits for employees with children or offer the option, at the taxpayer’s request, of family taxation, which will be lower the more children the payer has.

At the same time, in order to compensate for the shortfall in budget revenues and increase revenues to it, we propose to introduce a progressive tax on personal income.

In addition, a special consolidated Children's budget should be created as a step towards the real implementation of social program-targeted budgets, especially since, according to T.A. Golikova, so far the Ministry of Finance is “not doing very well” with program-target planning and budgeting.

The budget for 2017 and subsequent years practically ignores the most pressing problems of the housing and communal services sector. Thus, for 2017 it is planned to reduce the volume of budget allocations by 4.8 billion rubles compared to the previous year.

It is important to note that the materials under study do not indicate the structure-forming priority of social policy in the planned period, except for the “fulfillment of accepted social obligations” already habitually and repeatedly voiced by the leadership. Indeed, this is how the consolidated budget is oriented, but in the federal budget the situation is often the opposite. For example, for federal healthcare there is a reduction in allocations from 465.6 billion rubles. in 2016 to 378.0 billion rubles. according to the project for 2017, while according to the consolidated budget these indicators do not decrease - accordingly, 3269 billion rubles. and 3463 billion rubles. - to GDP 3.9 and 4.0%. Our proposal is to subsequently strengthen the role of the consolidated budget in the Ministry of Finance’s system “Open Budget”, “Budget for Citizens”, which is used by experts, the media and the population. Budget for social expenditures for 2017-2019. not only preserves the previous departmental approach in the budget process, but also violates the requirement of the Open Budget system of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation about its accessibility for the population and experts. Analysis is essentially impossible when the industry classification does not coincide with the program aspect.

State programs for the development of science and innovative sectors of the economy
Budgetary allocations for the implementation of the state program “Development of Science and Technology” for 2013-2020, provided for in the Draft Law, will amount to 150.8 billion rubles in 2017, 154.9 billion rubles in 2018. and in 2019 157.4 billion rubles, which forms 0.93% of total federal budget expenditures in 2017, 0.96% in 2018 and 0.98% in 2019. These data indicate insignificant funding development of science and technology, which should make a significant contribution to the development of the Russian economy.

In the section “Development of science and technology” for 2013-2020. resource provision is provided for the main event “Improving the remuneration system for scientific employees in 2017 by 6627.8 million rubles, in 2018 by 6600.1 million rubles, in 2019 by 3949.0 million rubles, which is due to by allocating additional budgetary allocations to increase the salaries of scientific employees in accordance with Decree No. 597 of May 7, 2012. Apparently, this should to some extent neutralize the situation when a researcher of the highest category receives a salary of less than 50 % of the regional average. We cannot ignore the fact that the support parameters of the federal target program “Research and development in priority areas of development of the scientific and technological complex of Russia for 2014-2020” compared to the previous year were not only not increased, but decreased in 2017 by 2349 .4 billion rub. and in 2019 - by 3208.7 billion rubles.

Budget allocations for the implementation of the state program “Economic Development and Innovative Economy” will amount to 76.5 billion rubles in 2017, 78.6 billion rubles in 2018, and 75.5 billion rubles in 2019. which amounts to 0.47% of total federal budget expenditures in 2017, 0.49% in 2018 and 0.47% in 2019. Moreover, if the state program “Development of Science and Technology” provides for 5 subprograms, and The state program “Economic Development and Innovative Economy” has 10 subprograms, then, naturally, the volume of funding for these subprograms amounts to hundredths of a percent of all federal budget expenditures.

RUB 137.5 billion is allocated for the implementation of the state program “Development of Industry and Increasing Its Competitiveness”. in 2017, 138.6 billion rubles. in 2018 and 136.8 billion rubles. in 2019, which is 0.85% of federal budget expenditures in 2017, 0.86% in 2018 and 0.86% in 2019. Compared to 2016, there is a decrease in budget allocations. It should also be noted that within the framework of the state program “Development of industry and increasing its competitiveness” the largest share falls on the subprogram “Development of transport and special engineering: 75.9% in 2017, 76% in 2018 and 77.6% in 2019, and the rest - less than 25% is distributed between 8 subprograms. As the analysis shows, the state program “Development of Industry and Increasing Its Competitiveness” also lacks concentration of funds in the most effective areas.

It is a matter of serious concern that the state program “Development of Industry and Increasing its Competitiveness” completely lacks subprograms for such basic industries as the machine tool industry, electrical and electronic industry, instrument making and radio industry, civil aircraft construction, without which there can be no question on the rapid restoration of the competitiveness of Russian industry in the field of new technologies.

It is obvious that the insignificant funding for scientific research and development projected within the framework of the draft budget is unlikely to be able to radically influence the increase in the innovative orientation of the Russian economy. In conditions of limited financial resources, it would be advisable to select the most effective programs from the above programs in order to concentrate funds on their implementation in the shortest possible time.

Defense: from global defense projects to internal security
The Russian Ministry of Finance is radically reducing military spending in 2017 - by almost a third - from 3.89 trillion to 2.84 trillion rubles. This is 27% less than planned for 2016, and 11% less than in 2015 d. The new budget also does not take into account funding for reformatting law enforcement agencies. At the same time, spending on national security will remain virtually unchanged - 1.943 trillion rubles.

In the next 3 years, the trend towards reducing funds allocated for defense will continue, although it is obvious that this is not a local priority of our society, but one of the key foundations of the country, which has national life-supporting significance.

Assessment of projects in the field of inflation and tariff increases of infrastructure sector companies in the draft budget
From budget projections at prices for 2017-2019. the desire of its authors to maintain stability at the expense of economic development is clearly visible. In our opinion, in this situation it is necessary to move away from the policy of targeting inflation by restraining the process of injecting the money supply into economic circulation and thus limiting effective demand and move on to targeting economic growth.

In the practice of forecasting prices and inflation used by the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, unfortunately, inflation for population groups differing in income level is not taken into account. In countries with a high level of differentiation of incomes of the population, which includes Russia, operating with average inflation indicators without their detailing by consumer groups cannot be considered methodologically correct, since average values hide the real state of affairs. For example, according to some estimates, for 60% of the population, whose expenses on food, electricity, housing and communal services and transport, according to Rosstat, amount to up to ⅔ of total expenses, inflation annually amounts to 13-20%.

Increasing the competitiveness of the national economy is the basis of the socio-economic development of Russia, and it requires the implementation not of individual, generally questionably effective measures for price regulation and, especially, for inflation targeting, but targeted, coordinated with other areas of the state’s economic policy in the field of pricing.

Servicing state and municipal debt
Since 2012, the federal budget has been running a deficit. A deficit is also planned for the coming three-year period: in the amount of 2,753.2 billion rubles. in 2017 - more than 3% of the projected GDP, 2,011.2 billion rubles. in 2018 - about 2% of GDP and 1,142.2 billion rubles. in 2019 - about 1% of GDP. The main source of financing the deficit should be domestic borrowing. In this regard, the total volume of revenues from government borrowings will amount to 1,017.8 billion rubles in 2017, and 975.3 billion rubles in 2018. and in 2019 - 1,020.9 billion rubles.

Federal budget expenditures on servicing state and municipal debt in 2017 will amount to 728.7 billion rubles, and then over the three-year period 848.0 billion rubles. According to the draft Law on the Federal Budget, the bulk of borrowing will be carried out on the domestic market in the currency of the Russian Federation.

Interbudgetary relations in the draft Federal Budget Law for 2017-2019.
The draft federal budget for 2017 and subsequent years provides for a revision of the model for the distribution of revenues between the federal budget and the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and an expansion of the scope of horizontal equalization - the redistribution of revenues from the budget of one region to the budget of another.

The main measures that change the distribution of tax income, primarily between the federal budget and the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, are:

Redistribution of income tax in favor of the federal budget - one percentage point of the rate. Redistribution of some excise taxes in favor of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - excise taxes on certain types of alcohol and petroleum products - by changing the standards for transferring to regional budgets.

Redistribution of part of the revenues under production sharing agreements in favor of the federal budget - 98% of these revenues come from the budget of the Sakhalin region.

Changes in the procedure for crediting excise taxes on certain types of alcohol to the budget revenues of constituent entities of the Russian Federation - 80% - at the place of production, and then - for redistribution in proportion to sales volumes.

The bill provides for a reduction in the total amount of interbudgetary transfers to the budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2018 and 2019. In 2017 alone, it is planned to increase the total amount of transfers within the planned inflation rate by 4% compared to the planned transfer values approved for 2016.

The reduction in the total amount of federal transfers to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation at nominal values - not to mention real ones - takes place in the context of the redistribution of part of their income in favor of the federal budget and the declaration that part of these resources will be used for inter-budgetary equalization. The latter is visible only in 2017, when subsidies to equalize the level of budgetary security increase compared to 2015 by 26%. The entire amount of subsidies increases by 15% compared to the approved figures for 2016.

The current financial equalization system indirectly includes excise tax revenues from certain categories of alcoholic products. The redistribution of one percentage point of income tax in favor of the federal budget, using these funds to increase the total amount of subsidies to equalize budgetary security, will lead to a reduction in the income of the most highly affluent regions. Note that the total amount of growth in income tax revenues to the federal budget as a result of this measure is planned in the amount of 121.0884 billion rubles, and the total amount of subsidies to equalize the level of budgetary security increases only by 100 billion rubles.

More than 52% of the total loss of regional budget revenues from this measure falls on eight constituent entities of the Russian Federation - calculations were made based on data for 2015 based on the average regional tax rate.

As can be seen from the data presented, the most significant losses will be the revenue losses of the consolidated budget of the Sakhalin region - especially taking into account the change in the order of distribution of income coming from the PSA, the Tyumen region and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, that is, in general, quite prosperous regions of the Russian Federation.

The question of increasing the efficiency of operations related to the allocation of subventions and subsidies remains open. At the same time, it should be especially emphasized that the ideology of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation is clearly focused on reducing the volume of interbudgetary transfers from the federal budget to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the forecast period 2017-2019.

The increase in the volume of subsidies to equalize budgetary security is due to the difficult economic situation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and is intended to compensate for the unequal opportunities of the most needy regions in the implementation of the constitutional rights of citizens. Their growth - the average annual growth rate is 6.05%, not much higher than that included in the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. consumer price index.

Financing the Federal Budget Deficit
The size of the deficit should be determined not by the minimum needs for financing expenses in the context of a decrease in regular tax and customs revenues, but by the available unused resources of the economy. Reducing the deficit to 1% of GDP in 2019 appears counterproductive.

Apparently, the Ministry of Finance includes in the draft budget the possibility of financing some not very large unforeseen expenses. There is nothing negative about this, but a number of questions raise the composition and nature of the sources of deficit financing.

Analysis of the draft budget and explanatory note allows us to give a systematic idea of the structure of financing the deficit outlined in the draft budget.

In 2017 and 2018 the most important proposed source of financing the deficit is the expenditure of budget funds, i.e. sale of part of the official foreign exchange reserves managed by the Ministry of Finance.

Noteworthy is the unusually large role assigned to the net repayment of budget loans provided mainly to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The very fact that the draft budget does not include the increase in budget loans, but their net repayment, means that the regions will not receive the financial assistance they need during the crisis. Moreover, net repayment of budget loans will be added to the regions’ other obligations. In 2017, the net repayment of budget loans, according to the draft budget, should amount to 4.1% of the total amount of deficit financing, in 2018 - 9.5%, in 2019 - 11.4%.

An analysis of the concept of financing the federal budget deficit proposed by the government forces us to draw the following conclusions: - a contraction of the Central Bank’s internal credit for the sake of financing the deficit is counterproductive to getting out of the depression; - it is best to place the increase in government debt in the Central Bank’s portfolio and thereby replace interest-bearing government debt with an increase in the monetary base, i.e. interest-free government obligations; - a reduction in budget loans during a crisis can have extremely negative consequences for the regions; - designing sources of deficit financing should be associated with an analysis of the balance of payments and the balance of the Central Bank, in particular, with the planned increase in the monetary base.

Assessment of the parameters of the draft budget and forecast for 2017-2019. in comparison with the threshold values of the country's economic security
Unfortunately, the draft Federal Budget does not address issues of ensuring economic security. At the same time, the budgeting strategy for economic security policy requires mandatory inclusion in the main financial document of our state. We propose a comparison of indicators of economic security, for which there are corresponding data in published statistical reports, with the data contained in the materials for the draft budget and forecast.

Analysis of the level of economic security using threshold values and target indicators allows us to identify areas in the economy that are deepest in the danger zone and require priority development and implementation of measures to correct the situation - these are the GDP growth rate and the share of innovative products.

It should be especially emphasized that the Russian economy lost its dynamism long before the decline in world oil prices and the introduction of Western sanctions. Already in 2013, the GDP growth rate was only 1.3%, and then entered the negative zone. It seems that the GDP growth rates for 2017 - 0.6%, for 2018 - 1.1% and for 2019 - 2.1%, as envisaged in the socio-economic development forecast, are completely insufficient. They leave the Russian economy in a mode of low, stagnant growth within the limits of statistical error. Therefore, first of all, it is necessary to provide financing for the accelerated growth of internal factors of economic growth - investment and household income.

Conclusion: budget 2017-2019 - a difficult path to fairness and efficiency
In general, the budget is reasonably focused on the main priorities of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. However, the main characteristics of the budget in the field of social security, formed in accordance with the parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development and legally established “budget rules”, do not provide the necessary amounts of funding to fulfill existing and accepted expenditure obligations, jeopardizing the stability of the federal budget in relation to the main budget risks.

The transition to a three-year budget for 2017-2019 is not convincing enough, which is associated both with the significant uncertainty of the long-term parameters and with the methodological solutions used to determine them. The volatility of many indicators reduces the level of reliability and trust in the planned results.

The scientific approach to predicting the future state of the Russian economy, especially in the field of social spending, is associated with “versionism”; in the budget, one scheme-model is imposed - associated with minor deviations from previously established rules. The question worth studying is whether it is worthwhile to establish automatically triggered measures to stabilize the economy. For example, if the unemployment rate increases, the payroll tax - insurance premiums - will be automatically reduced.

The government is making a strategic mistake - instead of increasing the tax base through the development of production and thus replenishing the budget, it follows the path of least resistance, that is, further increasing taxes on consumption. This could provoke a reduction in the real production base and drive the situation into a social impasse, because the greater the fiscal burden, the smaller the tax base will be, and therefore the contributions to the budget.

The “economic model” based on raw material rent is becoming uncompetitive - we are being surpassed by countries that actively invest in science and education and lure the best professional specialists into these areas. Without liberalization of legislation in the field of small and medium-sized businesses, Russia will face weak economic growth and an outflow of financial and human capital.

In the current conditions of serious restrictions and not very favorable political and economic conditions, it is important to concentrate the flow of financial resources on those areas of the domestic economy that are vital for the country and its citizens. It cannot be denied that in the 2017-2019 budget. A definite attempt has been made to solve these problems, but over these years there has been no expectation of a way out of the slow dynamics of economic growth, nor a modern restructuring of the “development model” of the country’s economy that meets the requirements of a globalizing world economic system.

I.V. KARAVAEVA Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Economic Security Sector of the Institute of Economics RAS

IN AND. PAVLOV Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher of the Institute of Economics RAS

B.V. GUBIN Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

E.A. IVANOV Candidate of Economic Sciences, Leading Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences

The government is returning to a three-year budgeting cycle, which will eliminate structural imbalances. Russia's budget for 2017 reflects in numbers the desire of officials to switch to austerity regime. At the same time, the government does not predict a significant rise in oil prices, and the budget deficit remains at a high level.

Russia's budget for 2017 in numbers

The transition to a three-year budget cycle will eliminate existing imbalances, representatives of the Ministry of Finance are confident. Prior to this, the federal budget was developed for each year, which led to negative consequences in the context of a declining economy. The current year's budget deficit will reach 3.9%, which is the maximum value in the last 6 years. The main task of the Ministry of Finance is to reduce the deficit to 1.2% by 2019.

Experts emphasize that the transition to a three-year cycle indicates that the acute phase of the crisis has been overcome. In the current conditions, representatives of the economic bloc can plan the development of the situation in the medium term, which allows them to use a greater number of tools to stabilize the situation.

The key forecast parameter that affects the 2017 budget is the price of oil. Officials set a fairly conservative forecast for oil prices – $40 per barrel. If oil prices rise higher, the government will receive an additional source of financing, with the help of which the Reserve Fund will be replenished.

The revenue side of the budget for 2017 remains without significant changes - 13.44 trillion rubles. (versus 13.37 in 2016). Given the current rate of inflation, real budget revenues continue to decline. This trend is expected to change only in 2019.

The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that the tax burden on businesses will not increase in the medium term. Moreover, officials allow a reduction in the tax burden, which will stimulate the development of entrepreneurship.

The most pressing issue remains the necessary cost cuts. Despite all attempts by officials, the cost portion of the future budget continues to significantly outstrip planned revenues.

Deficit spending: reserves running out

Total budget expenditures for next year reach 16.18 trillion rubles. The Russian budget deficit in 2017 is expected to be 3.16% (RUB 2.74 trillion). Compared to the absolute deficit of the current year, this figure will be reduced by 16%, the Ministry of Finance emphasizes.

The structure of expenditures remains without significant changes - the main cost items remain the social sphere (31.4%) and national security and defense (29.8%). At the same time, the shares of costs for healthcare and education will be only 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively. The share of classified expenses will be about 18%, which is significantly less than in 2016 (22%).

To finance Russia's budget deficit for 2017, several sources will be used. First of all, the Ministry of Finance plans to increase domestic borrowing, which will help relieve the unnecessary burden on reserve funds. More than 1 trillion rubles will be spent on the domestic market annually, which is twice the rate of borrowing this year. In addition, next year the Ministry of Finance will have to repay government securities in the amount of 829 billion rubles.

The reserve fund next year will “lose weight” by another 1.15 trillion rubles. As a result, this source of funding will be completely exhausted. Another 660 billion rubles. officials plan to raise funds from the National Welfare Fund. In subsequent years, the rate of consumption of the National Welfare Fund reserves will increase.

Changes are delayed

The structure of the domestic budget remains without significant changes, which indicates the reluctance of the authorities to solve the accumulated problems, experts say. The main items of expenditure remain the social sphere and defense, which is actually a “eating” budget. At the same time, the government is constantly postponing the launch of pension reform, which would help balance the situation.

Despite the significant margin of safety, financing the budget deficit is becoming a serious problem. During the crisis, the Russian Federation completely depleted its existing reserves. Future privatization and rising domestic debt will resolve the issue in the short term, but a new collapse in oil prices could trigger a structural crisis.

To reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors, it is necessary to make changes to the current economic model. This will include going through a painful period of reducing the share of social spending. Saved resources should be used for investment and development of infrastructure projects, which will create new factors for economic growth.

Russia's budget for 2017 remains deficit. Expenditures exceed revenues by 2.74 trillion rubles, which will lead to further depletion of reserve funds and an increase in domestic debt.

The main cost items remain the social sphere and defense, which indicates the conservation of existing problems. As a result, the Russian economy will remain tied to the dynamics of oil prices.

Without exaggeration, one of the most important and expected financial documents in our country can be called the federal budget. It contains basic information about planned cash flows in Russia: income components, expected expenses. The budget reflects in numbers all the activities, programs and payments planned by our Government.

The formation and execution of the document is regulated by law. So, it has been signed for the next financial year and public information from it is already available. Read about the adopted Russian budget for 2017 in numbers in the article below.

Structure of the planned state budget

What is this document? It is compiled by the Government of the Russian Federation on the basis of a forecast of socio-economic development, which contains the expected parameters of indicators affecting the country’s income. Expected income items are formed from them. Then the revenue portion is distributed to the necessary needs of the country.

The completed document is sent to the State Duma for consideration. It must be approved in three readings, after making possible amendments. As of today, the Russian budget for 2017 has been adopted in terms of development and income forecasts.

Predicted values

What numbers are the country's leadership focusing on in the near future? The basic scenario, which is the basis of the budget, contains the predicted values:

Oil price: $40;
Dollar exchange rate (annual average): 67.5-71 rubles;
Gross domestic product: 86.8 trillion. rubles (growth 0.6%);
Inflation (increase in consumer prices): 4%.

Income

Budget revenues next year will amount to 13.42 trillion. rubles The corresponding Russian budget for 2017 in dollars will be about 200 million. This corresponds almost completely to the 2016 budget revenues. The revenue side of the budget consists of the following main revenues:

Oil and gas sector (RUB 5,029 billion):

Customs duties.

Other (RUB 8,408 billion):

Excise taxes (alcohol, fuel, tobacco products);
Corporate income tax;
Mineral extraction tax;
Customs duties;
Other.

For comparison, here is the ratio in 2012: 50.2% - income from the oil and gas sector and 49.8% - all others. Now income from the oil industry is less than the rest by a third. This distribution requires no comment and immediately answers one of the popular questions - how dependent is Russia on oil?

Expenses

According to the budget, expenditures are expected to amount to 16.18 trillion. rubles This is 425 billion rubles. less than the previous year, but by 2.75 trillion. more income.

The expenditure side of the country's budget causes much more disagreement among deputies. After the first reading, about 500 amendments were made, 3 out of 4 parties were against the proposed document. Let's consider the expense items of the adopted budget.

National issues: 1170 billion rubles. (+72 billion compared to last year);
National defense: 2840 billion rubles. (- 1000 billion rubles);
National security: 1968 billion rubles. (+25 billion rubles);
Economy: 2292 billion rubles. (+124 billion rubles);
Housing and communal services: 30 billion rubles. (-30 billion rub.);
Environmental protection: 76 billion rubles. (+11 billion rubles);
Education: 568 billion rubles. (+10 billion rubles);
Culture and cinema: 94 billion rubles. (+2 billion rubles);
Medicine and healthcare: 377 billion rubles. (-89 billion rubles);
Social policy: 5080 billion rubles. (+450 billion rubles);
Sports: 86 billion rubles. (+20 billion rubles);
Mass media: 74 billion rubles. (-2 billion rub.);
Public debt: 729 billion rubles (+89 billion rubles).

After the second reading, part of the expenses was redistributed. As you can see, investments in the economy will increase next year. It is planned to allocate significant funds to support small and medium-sized businesses, as well as subsidize the regions. The budget of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs for 2017 has also been increased as planned. Funds have been added for the reconstruction of sports facilities, and additional subsidies are awaiting regional media.

Russia's military budget for 2017 (section National Defense) will be reduced and will amount to 73% of last year. Housing and communal services costs will be cut by half.

However, not all expenditures of the state treasury are accessible: 18% of them are not open data and are classified.

Shortage

Russia's budget deficit for 2017 still exists, despite the planned economic growth and significantly reduced (by 425 billion rubles) expenses. Its value is very significant - 2.75 trillion. rub., which is a fifth of the revenue or 3.16% of GDP.

According to the project for the next 2018-2019, its size will gradually decrease, but over these three years it will not be possible to completely get rid of the cash deficit in the treasury, even in conditions of the strictest savings.

If we analyze the dynamics of financial revenues to the state budget, we can see: the deficit is due to a reduction in the profitability of the oil and gas sector. Currently, the government’s goal is not only to reduce the budget deficit, but also to reduce oil dependence by reorienting the economy to a new investment model of development.

Where does the difference come from?

The budget deficit in the Russian Federation has been occurring for several years now, and all previous years it was compensated from the Reserve Fund. The remaining amount there today is 1.15 trillion. rubles will be spent in the first few months, but even this money will not be enough to finance the necessary expenses.

How will funds be found for the remaining almost 2 trillion? rubles? The latest news about the Russian budget for 2017 voices the decision to partially use the National Welfare Fund. Almost 67 billion rubles will be used for current needs. There will also be a placement of loan bonds on the domestic market in the amount of about 2 trillion. rubles This solution was proposed by the Ministry of Finance, and, apparently, there are no worthy alternatives.

Other possibilities for reducing the deficit include amendments to the Tax Code, as a result of which the increased tax burden will partially help in the current situation. Thus, the mineral extraction tax on petroleum products and gas will increase, and excise taxes on fuel - diesel and fifth-class gasoline - will increase. Wine, tobacco products and e-cigarettes will also be subject to increased rates.

Conclusion

The 2014 crisis showed all the imperfections of the economic model currently existing in Russia. Significant dependence on the income of only one sector of the economy, lack of adequate cash reserves and other issues related to political orientation require revision and restructuring in accordance with the needs of the time.

The difficult economic situation in Russia makes us think ahead about what kind of life awaits us, ordinary citizens, in the future. The future of ordinary people directly depends on what policies those in power are going to adhere to in the coming period. Today we will learn about what the Russian budget will be in 2017.

Features of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2017

As you know, the budget of the Russian Federation is developed immediately for 3 years in advance, therefore we can already talk about what Russia’s budget indicators will be in 2017-2019. However, the figures in this budget may change over time, under the influence of various factors and circumstances, including changes in various budget indicators that can be very significantly influenced by world politics and economics.

It should be noted that federal budget for 2017-2019., adopted by the State Duma - December 9, 2016. and signed by the President of the Russian Federation on December 20. The country's budget is calculated from many factors. Not the least important influence on it is the dollar exchange rate, the general political situation in the external arena, etc. In addition, the imposed sanctions and response measures to them have a great impact on the country’s economy. The adopted Federal Budget Law will come into force on January 1, 2017.

Russian budget 2017 in numbers

Income- amount to 13,488 billion rubles.

Expenses– 16241 billion rubles.

Budget deficit– 2753 billion rubles. It is planned to reduce the budget deficit over the next 3 years to 1.1 billion rubles. Analysts expect that in 2017 the budget deficit will decrease by 15%. However, everyone unanimously argues that this reduction can only happen by reducing government spending, including on the needs of the population.

Table of income and expenses of the Russian budget for 2017

By 2019, the government plans to reduce the budget deficit to 1.2% of GDP (from the expected 3.9% in 2016), without raising taxes or increasing the retirement age. In the photo: Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (left) and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov (Photo: Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AP)

After the one-year budget of 2016, the government decided to return to a three-year cycle - the Ministry of Finance believes that this is the only way to consistently and predictably correct the accumulated imbalances of the budget system. At the end of 2016, the budget deficit could reach 3.9% of GDP, which would be the largest gap in six years. The Ministry of Finance wants to reduce it to 1.2% by the end of 2019. Return to a three-year budget cycle - "maybe<...>and it’s too early for today’s conditions,” President Vladimir Putin admitted on Wednesday, speaking at the VTB Capital forum “Russia Calling.” “But still, the government has a certain amount of healthy optimism, and, of course, I even support it,” the president said.

When will the budget be approved?

The government will consider the draft three-year budget at a meeting on Thursday, October 13. It must still be approved by the Ministry of Economic Development. The project was received by the Ministry of Economic Development on Wednesday, “the document is being studied,” a representative of the ministry told RBC.

The government plans to submit a draft three-year budget to the State Duma on October 28, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday. By then it may well be adjusted; changes will certainly be made during its passage through the Duma.

What are the main budget parameters?

Revenues in 2017 will be in nominal terms almost at the level of the current year - 13.44 trillion rubles. ( see table). In real terms, adjusted for inflation, they will continue to decline. True, by 2019 the Ministry of Finance expects revenue to grow to 14.8 trillion rubles. — in nominal terms, this will be a historical maximum. However, firstly, this planned growth is partly due to the weak ruble budgeted for 2019 (71.1 rubles per dollar), while the oil price is projected for all three years at $40 per barrel. Secondly, budget revenues as a share of GDP will decline every year and will fall to 15% in 2019 (compared to over 19% of GDP in 2012).

The total amount of expenses for 2017 is proposed in the amount of 16.18 trillion rubles, for the next two years - already slightly less than 16 trillion rubles. The only way to fiscal consolidation is to reduce spending, Siluanov said at the Russia Calling forum on Wednesday. But it turns out that the Ministry of Finance is still counting more on income growth than on cost savings. Compared to the estimate of the expected execution of the 2016 budget, revenues by 2019 will increase by more than 1.4 trillion rubles, while expenditures will decrease by 670 billion rubles. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the high base of expenses in 2016: at the end of the one-year budget, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenses from 16.1 trillion to 16.4 trillion rubles, and taking into account the expected changes in the so-called consolidated budget schedule, which do not need to be carried out through amendments into law - up to 16.63 trillion rubles.

As a result, the budget deficit in 2017 will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles, or 3.16% of GDP, according to the bill. In amendments to the 2016 budget submitted to the State Duma this week, the Ministry of Finance proposes to register a deficit of 3.03 trillion rubles, but expects that in fact the gap will be larger - 3.26 trillion rubles. That is, next year the budget deficit could be reduced by 16%.

In 2018, the budget deficit, according to the Ministry of Finance’s project, will be reduced to 2.2% of GDP, and in 2019 - to 1.2% of GDP.

It will be possible to attract additional income without tax reforms or raising the retirement age. “The government’s ideology is not to increase taxes,” Siluanov said on Wednesday; on the contrary, changes are possible in terms of easing the share of direct taxes for businesses. The serious increase in income that the Ministry of Finance is counting on is realistic, says Lyudmila Pronina, professor at the Department of Economics and Public Sector Finance at RANEPA. Firstly, this is income from the mineral extraction tax (the Ministry of Finance calculated it at the level of 300 billion rubles for 2017 and 200 billion each in the next two years), the second is an increase in excise taxes, and then in 2019 a likely increase in taxes due to unpopular measures, he says Pronina.

How is the Ministry of Finance going to finance the three-year deficit?

Unlike 2016, when two-thirds of the deficit was financed by the Reserve Fund, in 2017-2019 the Ministry of Finance proposes to change the structure of deficit financing towards less use of sovereign funds and more use of borrowed funds. It is proposed to borrow 1.05 trillion rubles in the domestic market. every year (net borrowing). This is twice as much as the Ministry of Finance plans to borrow in 2016. Considering the need to repay government securities worth 829 billion rubles in 2017, the Ministry of Finance will need to place OFZs in the amount of almost 1.9 trillion rubles.

In 2017, it is planned to withdraw 1.15 trillion rubles from the Reserve Fund to finance the deficit, and this means that the Reserve Fund will be completely depleted. We will have to use the National Welfare Fund (NWF), from which the Ministry of Finance wants to spend 660 billion rubles. in 2017. The peak of NWF spending will be in 2018—RUB 1.14 trillion. As a result, by the end of the three-year budget period, about 3 trillion rubles will remain in the National Welfare Fund. (now it contains 4.6 trillion rubles). Sovereign funds will not be replenished during this period - the fiscal rule is suspended until February 1, 2020.

For 2017, the Ministry of Finance sets the target for external borrowing at $7 billion, as it was in the pre-crisis years. Earlier, Anton Siluanov explained that, in principle, the budget can do without external loans, but it is necessary to maintain the liquidity of sovereign Eurobonds. In essence, the Ministry of Finance will refinance the expiring debt in 2017 - securities worth $7.3 billion are planned for repayment. In 2018 and 2019, it is planned to borrow $3 billion each. Strictly speaking, the indicated figures for 2017-2019 do not necessarily imply borrowing on foreign markets - this may There may also be loans on the Russian market in foreign currency.

Isn't this amount of borrowing dangerous?

The government will increase the volume of domestic borrowing, Siluanov said on Wednesday at the VTB Capital forum. But, according to him, this must be done carefully - it is important not to go too far, so that investors do not begin to demand shorter securities and higher rates.

The volume of total government debt by the end of 2019 will grow to 16.6 trillion rubles, or 16.8% of GDP (compared to 15% of GDP at the end of the current year). In 2017, the Ministry of Finance plans to place securities worth 1.88 trillion rubles on the domestic market. (in 2018 - 1.6 trillion rubles, and in 2019 - 1.7 trillion). If geopolitical factors do not have a negative impact on financial markets, then, given that the Ministry of Finance will place 1.9 trillion rubles, “they will quite easily receive a lower yield, which may be at the level of 7% by the end of the year,” says the chief economist at PF Capital Evgeniy Nadorshin. Compared to the volume of Russian GDP of 1.9 trillion rubles. this is not much, the debt can be “quite calmly” doubled within five years without creating any problems in the market, the economist believes.

In general, in the coming period, the volume of the Russian Federation’s public debt “will remain at a safe level of less than 20% of GDP,” notes the explanatory note to the draft budget (available from RBC).

How many expenses will be kept secret?

The open part of budget expenditures for 2017 is 13.31 trillion rubles. This means that about 18% of all expenses will be classified (about the same share will be classified as classified expenses in 2018-2019). This is less than in 2016, according to the results of which the level of closure of expenses will exceed 22% (post-Soviet maximum). More than 500 billion rubles. in the next three years, the Ministry of Finance will allocate “separate subsidies” to companies and organizations, as well as “separate interbudgetary transfers” to regional budgets for classified budget items, it follows from the bill.

In terms of functional areas of budget expenditures, the largest amount is planned to be spent next year on social policy—RUB 5.08 trillion. ( see table). Under the “National Economy” section, allocations amounting to almost 2.3 trillion rubles are planned. “National Defense” will require about 950 billion rubles in the open part of the budget, and taking into account secret expenses - 2.84 trillion rubles. This is 27% less than what is planned to be allocated for national defense in 2016.

With the participation of Svetlana Bocharova

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