Humanity is experiencing an era of global demographic revolution. Until the turn of 2000, the population of our planet was growing at an increasing rate. At that time, it seemed to many that the population explosion, overpopulation and the inevitable depletion of natural resources and reserves would lead humanity to disaster. However, in 2000, when the world population reached 6 billion, the rate of population growth peaked at 87 million per year, or 240 thousand people per day, the growth rate began to decrease.
Demographic transition
There are 4 stages of demographic development based on types of reproduction.
First stage: high birth rate and death rate (positive natural increase)
Second stage: high birth rate, decreased mortality (positive natural increase)
Third stage: decreased birth rate and low mortality (decrease in the rate of expanded reproduction, transition to simple reproduction - natural increase = 0)
Fourth stage: low birth rate and death rate (natural increase = 0 or negative)
Demographic transition– this is the transition from the second stage to the third, when there is a decrease in population growth rates down to 0,
and further population decline is possible.
World population
1800 – 1 billion
1930 – 2 billion
1960 – 3 billion
1974 – 4 billion
1987 – 5 billion
1999 – 6 billion
2011 – 7 billion
2050 – 9.5 billion (average forecast)
There are different forecasts for the world population by 2050. Average 9.5 billion – UN. Worst – 10, best – 8.
One of the consequences of the population explosion in developing countries - their exclusively young population. Half of the residents of Russia are under 37 years old, in Europe - 39. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, half of the population are children and adolescents under the age of 16. The average age of the entire population in Africa is 19 years, in Asia - 28 years. Thus, both now and in the foreseeable future, a huge part of the population of developing countries will be teenagers and young people, socially immature and largely uneducated. They do not have clear prospects and are easily manipulated, prone to religious or political fanaticism.
In developed countries, the population has stabilized at one billion. They went through the transition only 50 years before developing countries.
The dynamics of modern developed society undoubtedly create a stressful environment. Initially, this occurs at the level of the individual, when the ties that lead to family formation and stability disintegrate. One of the consequences of this was a sharp reduction in the number of children per woman noted in developed countries. Thus, in Spain this number is 1.07, in Italy - 1.15 and in Russia - 1.3, while on average 2.15 children are needed to maintain simple population reproduction. Thus, all the richest and most economically developed countries, which carried out the demographic transition 30-50 years earlier, ended up failing in their main function - population reproduction. This is facilitated by both the increased time spent on education and the liberal value system, which arose in the modern world and is so rampantly propagated by some media, all those phenomena that are commonly called the moral crisis of society. If this trend continues, then the main population of developed countries is doomed to extinction and displacement by emigrants from more fertile ethnic groups.
This is one of the strongest signals that demographics give us. In general, if in developed countries we note a sharp drop in population growth, in which the population is not renewed and is rapidly aging, then in the developing world the opposite picture is still observed - there the youth-dominated population is growing rapidly.This change in age composition is the main result of the demographic revolution, which has now led to the maximum stratification of the world by age composition of the population.
With the world's population stabilized, development can no longer be tied to numerical growth. Development may stop, and then a period of decline will begin and the ideas of the “Decline of Europe” will receive a new embodiment. But something else is also possible - high-quality development, in which the quality of the population and the quality of people will become the meaning and goal of development. Moreover, it is Europe, some of whose countries were the first to implement the demographic transition, that is now paving the way for the reorganization of its economic and political space. The example of Europe points to the processes that other countries and humanity can expect in the future.
Causes of low birth rate in developed countries:
ü growth in the level and role of education, long-term training
ü changes in the value system
ü high level of urbanization
ü emancipation of women
Problems- population aging:
ü large tax burden on the working population (decided by increasing the retirement age)
ü as a consequence, pension problems
ü cultural problem - extinction of cultures, nations
ü extinction of villages (vacant lands)
ü growth in the number and importance of migrants, their replacement of the labor force
ü there may be a shortage of highly qualified labor in the future
Solutions– stimulation of fertility:
ü social support for large families (additional benefits, payments, maternity capital)
ü payment for maternity leave
ü provision of free medical care and education
ü propaganda
ü (for some countries) growth in living standards and social guarantees
ü (in countries where religion plays an important role) abortion ban
ü (Now) from the 19th century - migration from Europe to America, and r/yushch in r/t
Reasons for the high birth rate in developing countries:
ü children are a means of social guarantee (in developed countries these are pensions)
ü agricultural sector – labor-intensive production (children – labor force)
ü contraceptives are not common
ü traditions and mentality
ü there are no prerequisites for reducing the birth rate
Low level of urbanization (for backward countries)
No active emancipation of women
Low level of education
Problems:
ü overpopulation
ü low standard of living
ü low level of human resource development
Solutions– reduction in fertility:
ü improving living standards
ü increasing the level of education
ü improving healthcare and distributing contraception
ü raising the marriageable age
ü direct bans, additional taxes, deprivation of social benefits (China)
ü increasing the status of women, involvement in production
Demographic situation in Russia - problems:
ü fairly low birth rate and high mortality rate (mortality rate is higher than in Europe)
ü low standard of living
ü low level of medical care
ü low life expectancy
ü imbalance (in the Caucasus the birth rate is high, in the north it is low)
ü demographic hole after WW2 and the 90s
In the 70-90s, a demographic crisis emerged, affecting economically developed countries and countries with economies in transition. This crisis consists of a sharp decrease in population growth rates in both groups of countries and even natural decline (in Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Germany, Sweden), as well as demographic aging, reduction or stabilization of labor resources.
Demographic aging (when the proportion of the population over 60 years of age is more than 2% of its total population) is a natural, historically determined process that has irreversible consequences. At the same time, this process poses serious socio-economic problems for society - primarily an increase in the economic burden on the employed population.
Due to the fact that the mentioned countries (including Russia) are at the stage of demographic development characteristic of all industrial countries, large natural population growth is impossible at the present stage.
In Russia, a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate to the extent that they are actually possible in our country under the most favorable developments of events can somewhat reduce the natural decline compared to the situation in the 90s. (but we cannot overcome it). The only source of population growth or at least maintaining its non-decreasing numbers can only be immigration. As for demographic aging, it is expected that in Russia in 2000-2015. A “window of demographic favor” will open. During this period, the share of the population of retirement age will remain virtually unchanged, while at the same time the share of the population of working age will increase significantly. This period must be used to reduce the mortality rate of the population, especially in younger and middle ages (this will somewhat slow down the old age), as well as to reform the social protection system and significantly increase the efficiency of the economy.
World (global) demographic problems affect the interests of all humanity, therefore their settlement is possible only through joint efforts. The concept of “global demographic problems,” emphasizing the special importance of population problems, began to be used in scientific literature in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Currently, the attention of scientists in many countries is aimed at studying the problem regional differentiation of world population processes and their impact on the global economy. Contradictions between the trends in demographic development of individual countries increase its instability and increase the gap in the levels of economic development between developed and developing countries.
XX century (especially the second half) is characterized by a significant increase in the world's population. So, if in 1980 it was 4.4 billion people, in 1985 - 4.8, in 1990 - 5.3, in 2000 - 6.1, in 2013 - 7, 1 billion, then by 2025 it could reach more than 8 billion people. Such a high growth in the world's population is determined by the rate of its increase in developing countries. The modern “population explosion” in its strength and significance significantly exceeds a similar “explosion” that occurred in Europe in the 19th century.
The sharp increase in population in developing countries of Africa, Asia, and South America is explained by a decrease (with the help of the world community) in mortality and the persistence of a high birth rate. Such an increase in the population in these countries complicates the solution of the socio-economic problems they face, leads to the spread of dangerous diseases, the growth of armed conflicts in them, a decrease in living standards, the transformation of the positive phenomena of migration and urbanization into negative ones, etc.
The negative consequences of rapid population growth necessitate a gradual transition from its spontaneous, uncontrolled growth to the conscious regulation of population reproduction. To solve this problem, joint actions of the entire world community are required and, consequently, the creation of an international mechanism for influencing population processes. However, the main condition for achieving this goal is the socio-economic restructuring of all areas of life of the population of developing countries and the development of regional models of demographic policy.
The economically developed countries of Europe, North America, Japan and a number of others are characterized by other problems - population decline due to low birth rates and accompanied by an aging population.
The global demographic situation requires serious scientific research on such issues as: permissible limits of the Earth's population, taking into account natural limits; the likely timing of the end of world population growth; possible ways to curb population growth in developing countries; measures aimed at reducing the rate of population decline in economically developed countries.
In the 1960s the concept was formulated bullet population growth, according to which, by the year 2000, the demographic explosion in developing countries was expected to be completed and the entire population of the Earth would be stabilized. To achieve these goals, universal birth control was proposed. The developers of the concept (for example, D. J. Baugh, D. Meadows, J. Tinbergen) believed that developing countries could pursue a policy of reducing the birth rate even in a backward economy without solving social issues, developing education, education and culture.
This concept was sharply criticized by other researchers (K. Clark, P. Kuusi, J. Simon and others). Experience of many
countries showed that without simultaneous economic, social and cultural transformations, a change in the type of population reproduction is impossible.
In economically developed countries in the second half of the 20th century. there was a sharp decline in population growth rates (in contrast to population explosion in developing countries). This was due to the fact that the compensatory post-war surge in the birth rate was quickly replaced by a drop to a level that did not ensure simple reproduction of the population. The demographic situation in developed countries gradually turned into a crisis, which was manifested in a reduction in the birth rate, a natural decline in the titular population, a family crisis, etc.
However, the most significant problem in developed countries has become the aging population and all the economic and social difficulties associated with it. The reasons for the aging of the population are primarily a decrease in fertility and mortality and an increase in life expectancy.
Global population problems also include uncontrolled urbanization in developing countries, the crisis of large cities in a number of developed countries.
In economically developed countries with a high level of urbanization, the growth rate of the share of the urban population can be characterized as insignificant. These countries are currently characterized by processes of suburbanization (faster growth of the population of the suburban area) and the formation of new forms of urban settlement - megacities (merger of many cities into one huge one), urban agglomerations (accumulation of settlements).
In developing countries, the leading ones are the quantitative aspects of the urbanization process and its external forms. The urban population growth rate in these countries with enormous human resources is higher than in industrialized countries.
On the one hand, in developing countries, urbanization contributes to the progress of society. However, in most of them, urbanization significantly outpaces economic development, and the influx of rural population exceeds the labor force needs of cities.
Urbanization in developing countries, with a lack of many resources, is accompanied by a number of negative phenomena: population overcrowding, environmental pollution, lack of drinking water, favorable conditions for the spread of epidemics, etc.
The most important consequence of urbanization is an increase in the territorial mobility of the population, i.e. migration.
Population migration is a complex and contradictory social process associated with the level of economic development, the socio-economic attractiveness of individual territories, the characteristics and uneven distribution of productive forces in different parts of the world.
On the one hand, population migration contributes to the formation of the size and age composition of the population of industrialized countries through migration exchange of populations with developing countries, has a certain positive impact on the balance of the labor market, changes the economic and social situation of the newly arrived population, and contributes to the familiarization of the labor force of developing countries with the modern industrial culture, education of economic, technical and scientific personnel for their growing economy.
On the other hand, a massive uncontrolled influx of migrants can exacerbate the problem of employment, generating unemployment, and put strong pressure on the social infrastructure of receiving countries, thereby reducing the standard of living of the indigenous population. In addition, mass spontaneous migration can cause sharp unevenness in the distribution of population across the territory. This leads in some cases to surges in social and political activity of the population directed against migrants, and to a tightening of migration legislation in receiving countries.
The above negative consequences of uncontrolled migration classify it as one of the world population problems that influence the development of demographic processes.
To assist in solving the demographic problems of the world, a special United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) was established in 1969. He developed the UN program in the field of population, conducted a number of studies in the field of fertility, supported international and national educational institutions for training specialists in demography, etc.
The Foundation organized and held a number of World Population Conferences. The difference between these conferences and those previously held (1954 in Rome, 1965 in Belgrade) was that government delegations took part in them, whereas at previous conferences population specialists spoke only on their own behalf.
The first conference held by UNFPA took place in Bucharest (1974). It adopted the World Population Action Plan for 20 years.
The Second International Conference on Population took place in Mexico City (1984). It summed up the implementation of the World Plan over the past 10 years and adopted the Declaration on Population and Development.
The Third World Conference on Population and Development was held in Cairo (1994). Here the Program of Action in the field of population and development for the next 20 years was adopted. The Cairo conference once again shows that solving world demographic problems is possible with the united efforts of the entire world community.
Subsequently, the UN Commission on Population and Development has repeatedly addressed the assessment and progress in activities to implement the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and Development.
In January 2004, the European Population Forum was held in Geneva, with the theme “Demographic Challenges”
and policy measures to address them." The Forum was organized by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and UNFPA. The Forum assessed progress in the implementation of the Program of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo.
The urgency and necessity of holding the forum in Europe was caused by the fact that it became the only continent where the population declined during 1999-2005, and then the natural increase rate stabilized at zero. Further declines in population and labor force could hamper Europe's sustainable development.
- See: Demographic statistics / ed. M. V. Karmanova. Ch. eleven.
The economically developed countries of the world, as already noted, have long passed the second phase of the demographic transition and entered its third phase, which is characterized by a decrease in natural population growth rates. Until recently, there were almost no very significant differences in this regard between them. However, recently, quite strong differentiation has also begun to occur in this group of countries, and now it can also be divided into three subgroups.
The first subgroup includes countries where a fairly favorable demographic situation still exists, characterized by at least average fertility and natural increase rates, ensuring expanded population reproduction. An example of a country of this kind is the United States, where the reproduction “formula” (fertility - mortality = natural increase) in 2005 remained at the level of 14.1% - 8.2% = 5.2%. Accordingly, the average annual population growth was 1%. This subgroup also includes Canada, France, the Netherlands, and Norway, where the average annual population growth was at least 0.3–0.5%. At this rate of growth, population doubling in these countries can be expected in 100–200 years.
The second subgroup includes countries in which, in fact, expanded reproduction of the population is no longer ensured. These include mainly European countries, for which the total fertility rate in the mid-1990s. decreased to 1.5. Some of these countries still have a minimal excess of birth rates over deaths. Others, of which there are many more, have become countries with “zero” population growth. This is, for example, Sweden.
Finally, the third subgroup unites countries with negative natural population growth, or, more simply, with its natural decline (depopulation).
Table 40
The total fertility rate in this group of countries is also extremely low. The number of such countries with “minus” population growth only in 1990–2000. increased from 3 to 15. In 2005, there were 15 of them, but the composition changed somewhat (Table 40).
It would not be a mistake to say that the countries of the third (and in fact the second) subgroup have already entered a period of demographic crisis, which was brought to life by a complex of interrelated reasons. First of all, these include a rapid, and sometimes downright collapse, decline in the birth rate, which leads to a decrease in the proportion of young people in the population. This phenomenon is sometimes referred to by demographers as aging from below. Further, the increase in the average life expectancy of people in conditions of increasing levels of material well-being also led to a faster than expected increase in the proportion of people of older (“non-reproducing”) ages in the population, i.e., as they say, to aging from above.
However, it would be wrong to try to explain the onset of the crisis only by demographic reasons. Its emergence was also influenced by many socio-economic, psychological, medical, social, and moral factors, which caused, in particular, such a phenomenon as a family crisis. The average family size in the countries of the second and third subgroups has recently decreased to 2.2–3 people. And it has become much less stable - with an increase in the number of divorces, the widespread practice of cohabitation without formal marriage, and a sharp increase in the number of illegitimate children.
Back in the early 1960s. the number of divorces per 1000 marriages in foreign European countries ranged from 100 to 200, but already in the late 1990s. it increased to 200–300. Even more frightening are the data on illegitimate children, the proportion of which during the same time increased by 5-10 times. In Great Britain and France, for example, the proportion of illegitimate children exceeds 30%. It is even higher in Denmark – 40%. But the “absolute champions” in this regard were and remain Sweden, Norway and Iceland with an indicator above 50%.
All these reasons and factors are combined in different ways in the countries listed in Table 40. Thus, in Germany and Italy, the influence of demographic factors seems to really predominate. In the post-socialist countries of Central-Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.) it was affected by the fact that in the 1990s. they had to go through a rather painful stage of reforming the political system and transitioning from a command-planned to a market economy. The same applies to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. And in Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, the natural deterioration of the demographic situation coincided with the deep political and socio-economic crisis of the 1990s.
As for Russia, in the 20th century. One might say, she was unlucky with the demographic situation. The first phase of the demographic transition ended in it by the beginning of the twentieth century, but a real demographic explosion never followed. Moreover, over the course of half a century, Russia experienced three demographic crises: during the First World War and the Civil War, during the years of collectivization of the countryside and severe famine, and, finally, during the Great Patriotic War. In the 60s–80s. XX century The demographic situation in the country as a whole has stabilized, and back in 1989 the “formula” for the natural movement of the population looked like this: 19.6% - 10.6% = 9%. However, in the 1990s. A new, and especially strong, demographic crisis broke out (Table 41).
From the data in Table 41 it follows that in the 70s - early 80s. XX century Russia's demographic situation was relatively favorable. Thus, in 1983, 2.5 million children were born in the RSFSR. Then the beginning of perestroika and the fight against alcohol abuse had a beneficial effect on the birth rate and natural population growth. However, with the onset of the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. The demographic situation has deteriorated sharply. Since 1992, Russia has experienced an absolute population decline. It can be added that in the RSFSR in 1988 there were 2 more children per woman (in the USSR as a whole - 2.2 children), and by the end of the 1990s. Women's fertility in the country has dropped to 1.17 children, while more than two are needed for sustainable population growth. The number of marriages per 1000 inhabitants in 2000 decreased to 6.3 (in 1955 - 12.1), and the number of divorces increased to 4.3 (in 1955 - 0.8). According to available forecasts, the population of Russia will continue to decrease in the first decades of the 21st century, when the small generation born in the 1990s will enter adulthood, and the largest generation, born in the 50s, will leave working age. . XX century As a result, by 2015 the number of inhabitants in Russia may decrease (according to the average option) to 134 million people.
Table 41
In conclusion, it should be noted that, apparently, both demographic extremes - the explosion and the crisis - have both their advantages and their disadvantages. Therefore, some scientists put forward the concept of a demographic optimum, which, if interpreted uniformly, may not be quantitatively the same for different regions and countries.
The essence demographic problem consists in the accelerated growth of the Earth's population. It can be traced by analyzing the time periods through which the Earth's population reached each billion inhabitants.
It is obvious that in the second half of the 20th century. The time to reach each next billion has sharply decreased, which characterizes the extremely rapid growth of the Earth's population.
The question arises: “What is the main reason for such rapid population growth?” It lies in the peculiarities of the demographic situation in countries of the world, and especially in developing ones. The observed low labor productivity in agriculture (it is the main sector of the economy), communal ownership of land (the more people in a community, the larger its land allotment), as well as religious beliefs and traditions entail an increase in the birth rate, and therefore large families families.
Rice. 1. Time periods during which the Earth's population reached every billion inhabitants
However, if in the past high birth rates, so to speak, were “balanced” by high mortality (due to famine, disease and epidemics) and population growth was ultimately moderate, then after World War II, the achievements of modern civilization that came to developing countries entailed the exact opposite consequences and led to extremely rapid population growth due to high natural increase, which was called the “population explosion.”
Rice. 2. Causes of the global demographic problem
The essence of the changes that have occurred is reflected in the diagram (Fig. 1). Scheme in Fig. 2 and table. 1 allow us to conclude that the main reason for the “population explosion” is the lack of effective birth control.
Table 1. Demographic indicators for different types of countries
However, demographic problems are more complex and multifaceted and have significant geographical differences. In developing countries of the world, a common type of reproduction is characterized by relatively high fertility, mortality and natural increase (type I), and in developed countries there is an opposite type, manifested in lower levels of demographic processes (type II).
In other words, there are two problems: if developing countries are experiencing a “demographic explosion,” then a number of countries in the world are characterized by a “demographic crisis,” i.e., a decrease in population due to the excess of mortality over the birth rate, which entails a natural population decline.
At the end of the 20th century. the number of such countries has reached two dozen: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, the Baltic countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Germany, etc. The decline in the birth rate in these countries is mainly due to their socio-economic development.
Let us compare the demographic situation in each group of countries by individual elements and identify various geographical aspects of demographic problems.
Table 2. Demographic situation in developed and developing countries
Conclusion: every country in the world has its own demographic problems of a different nature and degree of complexity, determined by differences in the levels of economic, social and cultural development, the religious composition of the population and the history of the state.
Consequences of demographic problems may be as follows:
- extremely rapid growth of the world's population;
- high natural population growth in developing countries, far exceeding their capabilities in solving the problems of socio-economic development, thereby increasing their backwardness;
- increasing unevenness in the distribution of the world's population (9/10 of the world's population lives in developing countries).
Rice. 3. Consequences of demographic problems
Consequently, demographic problems entail the intensification of other global problems, including food, geo-ecological and many others.
Population explosion: problem statement
The current stage of human development is characterized by accelerated population growth.
Ten thousand years ago there were about 10 million people on Earth, by the beginning of our era there were 200 million, by 1650 - 500 million, by the 19th century. - 1 billion. In 1900, the population was 1 billion 660 million. In 1950, despite losses in two world wars, the population increased to 2.5 billion, and then one hundred
la to increase annually by 70-100 million (Fig. 17). In 1993, there were 5.5 billion people living on Earth. On October 12, 1999, at 0:02 a.m., a boy was born in one of the maternity hospitals in Sarajevo, becoming the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet. On February 26, 2006, the world's population reached another record figure - 6.5 billion people, and their number is increasing by 2% per year.
Rice. 17. Global population growth
There are currently about 6.4 billion people living on Earth, and the population is growing at 2% per year. It is expected that by 2050 there will be 8.9 billion earthlings.
Growth of the Earth's population in the middle of the 20th century. acquired a rapid pace and was called the demographic explosion. Population explosion- a sharp increase in the growth rate of the Earth's population associated with changes in socio-economic or general environmental living conditions.
Currently, approximately 180 people are born on the planet every minute, 21 people are born every second, and 19 people die every second. Thus, the population of the Earth increases by 2 people per second, by 250 thousand daily. The annual increase is approximately 80 million, almost all of it in developing countries. Nowadays doubling
the number of people on the planet occurs in 35 years, and the production of poverty grows by 2.3% per year and doubles in 30 years.
It should be noted that the population problem is not directly related to the number of inhabitants on our planet. The land can feed more people. The problem is the uneven distribution of people across the surface of the planet.
There are human settlements in almost every corner of the Earth, although some regions, such as Antarctica, lack conditions for permanent habitation. Other rugged areas are home to small groups of people who lead special lifestyles. The majority of the world's population is concentrated in a relatively small area. In the early 1990s. Almost half of the planet's 5.4 billion inhabitants occupied only 5% of its area. Conversely, half the Earth's area contained only 5% of its population. About 30% of the world's population is concentrated in South and Southeast Asia, including India, Indonesia and Pakistan, and 25% in East Asia, including China and Japan. Many people also live in eastern North America and Europe.
Residents of predominantly agricultural countries are more evenly distributed. In India, where 73% of the population lives in rural areas, its average density in 1990 was 270 people per 1 km 2. But here too there are significant fluctuations. For example, the population density in the middle Gangetic Plain is three times higher than the national average.
In Africa and South America, the average population density by country is much lower. The most densely populated country in Africa is Nigeria (130 people per 1 km2). Among South American countries, only in Ecuador this figure exceeds 30 people per 1 km 2. Significant areas of the Earth still remain almost uninhabited. In Australia there are 2.2 people per 1 km2, in Mongolia - only 1.4.
Despite the seemingly huge number of people on the planet - about 6 billion 400 million, hypothetically all of them can be accommodated on an area of 6400 km 2, if 1 m 2 is allocated for each inhabitant. This area corresponds to the area of Lake Issyk-Kul (Republic of Kyrgyzstan) or three areas of Lake Geneva in Switzerland. The rest of the globe would be free. For comparison, we note that the area of such a European dwarf state as Luxembourg is 2600 km 2, the area of the Spanish Canary Islands is 7200 km 2.
The ever-increasing world population requires more and more food, energy, and mineral resources, which causes increasing pressure on the planet's biosphere.
Analysis of the current situation of population distribution on the globe made it possible to identify some patterns.
- Population growth is extremely uneven. It is maximum in developing countries and minimum in developed countries of Europe and America.
- Rapid population growth disrupts its age ratio: the percentage of the disabled population—children, adolescents, and elderly people—is increasing. The share of children under 15 years of age in most developing countries reaches 50%, and people over 65 years of age range from 10 to 15%.
- Population density is increasing. The accelerated process of urbanization is accompanied by the concentration of the population in large cities. In 1925, a little more than 1/5 of the world's population lived in cities, now about half. It is predicted that by 2025, 2/3 of the world's inhabitants will be city dwellers.
North America and Europe have a very large concentration of cities. The high standard of living of the urban population of these regions contrasts strongly with the living conditions in Asia (excluding Japan), where rural inhabitants predominate, engaged in arable farming and cattle breeding. Smaller population concentrations are located in southeastern Australia, southeastern South America, the west coast of North America, and parts of the North American Midwest.
In these areas, population density is also very uneven. In some small states it is extremely high. The area of Hong Kong, for example, is only 1045 km 2, and the population density is about 5600 people. per 1 km 2. Among larger states, the highest density was recorded in 1991 in Bangladesh (about 800 people per 1 km 2). Typically, high population densities are found in industrialized countries. Thus, in the Netherlands in 1990 it amounted to 440 people. per 1 km 2, in Japan - 330 people. per 1 km 2.
Global population growth
The Earth's population is systematically increasing and its growth rate is increasing over the years. For example, the doubling of the population (in millions of people) from 20 to 40 occurred in 2000 years. From 80 to 180 - in 1000 years, from 600 to 1200 - in 150 years, and from 2500 to 5000 - in just 40 years. Between 1965 and 1970, the world's population growth rate reached a historically unprecedented peak of 2.1% per year.
By 1990, the total population of the planet reached 5, 2005 - 6, in 2010 - more than 6.5 billion people. According to forecasts, by 2025, about 10 billion people will live on Earth. More than half of the world's population lives in Asia - about 58, in Europe - over 17, in Africa - over 10, in North America - about 9, South America - about 6, in Australia and Oceania - 0.5%.
Numerous attempts to reduce the birth rate have failed. Currently, countries in Africa, Asia and South America are experiencing a population explosion. An excessively rapid increase in population requires a solution to the global problem of reducing the growth rate of the Earth's population, since people need a place to settle, to produce material goods and food.
In Russia, in the last decade, the population decreased every year and only stabilized by 2011 (mortality is approximately equal to the birth rate), but this decade it will decrease again due to demographic characteristics.
Lack of food. Despite the explosive nature of the planet's population, human food resources are declining. Thus, world production of grain, meat and fish and a number of other products per capita has been continuously declining since 1985. The forecasts came true and in 2010 prices for wheat and rice almost doubled. In the poorest countries this leads to mass starvation. Currently (according to official data) one out of every five inhabitants of the planet is hungry or malnourished.
By 2030, the planet's population may increase by 3.7 billion people, which will require doubling food production, and increasing industrial output and energy generation by 3 times.
Energy costs per unit of agricultural production (fertilizers, water, electricity, fuel for agricultural machinery, etc.) have increased almost 15 times over the past two decades, while yields have increased by an average of only 35-40%. The rate of growth in grain yields has slowed even since 1990. The efficiency of fertilizer use in the world, according to experts, is close to the limit.
In addition, the total area occupied by grain crops has stabilized at the level of the mid-1980s. In recent years, fish stocks have declined sharply. Thus, from 1950 to 1989, the world catch increased from 19 to 89 million tons, but later and until now (2010) no significant increase has been observed. An increase in the size of the fishing fleet does not lead to an increase in catch.
Thus, at the beginning of the 21st century. Humanity is faced with increasing degradation of ecosystems, exacerbating poverty and increasing inequality between industrialized and developing countries.
Population problem
The population dynamics of any country depends on such basic demographic indicators as fertility, mortality and migration.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union (1990s), there has been a significant decline in population in the CIS countries compared to the previous decade (the exception is Turkmenistan). The total population of the CIS countries at the beginning of 2001 was 280.7 million people, which is 1.6 million, or 0.6%, less than at the beginning of 1991.
Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, where 73% of all CIS residents live, have been growing since the early 1990s. have entered a period of depopulation, the pace of which is accelerating. Depopulation coefficient (the ratio of the number of deaths to the number of births) in 1992-1993. amounted to 1.1 in Belarus, 1.14 in Russia, 1.18 in Ukraine, and in 2000 it increased to 1.44, 1.77 and 1.96, respectively, or by 31-66%.
By the beginning of 2001, the population of Belarus had decreased to 9.99 million people. against 10.4 million at the beginning of 1994 (the year of the maximum number), or by 4.1%; Russia - up to 144.8 million people. versus 148.7 million at the beginning of 1992, i.e. by 3.9 million, or 2.6%; Ukraine - up to 49 million versus 52.2 million at the beginning of 1993, i.e. the decrease was 3.2 million, or 6.1% (Table 3). The total population losses of these three states during the years of reforms reached 7.5 million people, which exceeds the number of residents of such states as Denmark, Slovakia, Georgia, Israel, and Tajikistan.
Most significantly - by 2 million people. (11.3%) the population of Kazakhstan decreased: from 16.8 million at the beginning of 1991 to 14.8 million at the beginning of 2001. The negative result is due, along with a decrease in the birth rate, large and sustainable scales of population migration from Kazakhstan to other CIS countries (mainly Russian-speaking citizens to Russia and Germans to Germany).
Table 3. Resident population of CIS countries
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At the beginning of the year (thousand people) |
Including |
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1996 as a percentage of 1991 |
2001 as a percentage of 1996 |
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Belarus |
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Moldova |
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Azerbaijan |
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Kazakhstan |
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Kyrgyzstan |
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Tajikistan |
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Turkmenistan |
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Uzbekistan |
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In the remaining states of Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, the demographic potential in the 1990s was continued to grow. The population of Turkmenistan increased most significantly - by 30.4%, Uzbekistan - by 20.2%, Tajikistan - by 15.7%. However, in the last five years (1996-2000), these countries have seen a decline in population growth rates, which is due to a reduction in natural growth in them. Only in Kyrgyzstan did the population increase in the second half of the 90s. XX century increased and amounted to 6.1% against 4.6% in 1991 - 1995, which is associated with a sharp decrease in population migration outside the republic in recent years.
According to the age structure, the CIS countries are divided into three groups (Table 4). The first consists of Belarus, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine, where the oldest population, i.e. the proportion of people aged 65 years and older is the largest - 12.5-13.8%, and the proportion of children does not exceed 20.4%. Average life expectancy is decreasing. If in the 70s. XX century in the USSR it was 73 years, but now men live about 59 years, women - 72 years, i.e. The average life expectancy is 65 years. In the USA, average life expectancy increased by 5 years and amounted to 78 years; in Japan this figure is 79 years.
The second group includes the states of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, which have the youngest age structure: the share of children in them ranges from 32% in Azerbaijan to 42% in Tajikistan, and of older people - from 3.9 to 5.5%. The third group of countries - Armenia, Kazakhstan and Moldova - occupy an intermediate position: there are 24-29% of children, 7-9% of elderly people.
Table 4. Age structure of the population of the CIS countries
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Population at the beginning of 2001, million people. |
Share of age group, % |
Per 1000 population aged 15-64 years, people. |
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65 years and older |
65 years and older |
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Belarus |
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Kazakhstan** |
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Moldova |
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Azerbaijan |
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Kyrgyzstan |
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Tajikistan*** |
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Turkmenistan |
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Uzbekistan |
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* Population at the beginning of 2000
** Age data adjusted based on preliminary results of the 1999 census *** 1998
All CIS countries are characterized by a further increase in the number of older people and a decrease in the proportion of children. At the beginning of 2000, the proportion of the population over 65 years of age in Belarus was 13.3% against 11% in 1991, in Russia - 12.5% (10%), Ukraine - 13.8% (12%). As a result, the demographic burden of persons over 65 years of age on the working-age population (aged 15 to 65 years) has increased in these countries compared to the early 90s. XX century by 20-30%, and the demographic burden of children decreased by 10-15%.